In the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime 2016 World Wildlife Crime Report, Elephant Ivory and Rhino horns were discussed separately. Ivory was discussed under the heading of 'art, décor, and jewellery' and as an investment commodity. Rhino horn was classified as a traditional medicine, although it was already apparent at that time that it had also become a status item. In the last four years, the evidence has mounted that Rhino horn is being sold for its artistic and investment value, so it is similar to ivory in this respect. The two commodities are sourced from different regions in Africa but require similar skills and equipment to procure. They also share many commonalities in their primary destination markets. For these reasons, the two species are considered together in the 2020 World Wildlife Crime Report.
African Rhinos differ from African Elephants in that there are far fewer of them, and they are far more concentrated geographically. For every remaining African Rhino (about 25 000 of them) there are perhaps 20 African Elephants, and while it takes five countries to comprise three-quarters of the remaining elephants, 75 per cent of the remaining Rhinos can be found in just one: South Africa. South Africa has been so successful in breeding Rhinos that it has managed to export 538 live Rhinos since 2014, feeding growing wild and captive populations in other countries. Drought and poaching have caused South Africa’s Rhino population to decline since 2012, however, driving down the overall continental population.
Estimated numbers of Rhinoceroses by country in 2017. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime 2020 World Wildlife Crime Report.Around 7500, or over 40 per cent, of these South African rhinos are privately owned by ranchers and private game reserves. These operations have weathered a decline in the price of a live Rhino by two-thirds between 2007 and 2018. While legal prices have declined, the threat of poaching has imposed substantial security costs for Rhino ranchers. In this way, the illegal trade poses an additional threat to Rhino populations: it threatens to make these private holdings unsustainable.
Similar to ivory, there have recently been indications of a decline in the market for Rhino horn, as both supply (poaching) and price indicators are declining. South Africa, which experienced 86 per cent of the recorded poaching incidents between 2006 and 2017, has seen a declining trend in its poaching numbers every year since 2014. In 2019, the number of poaching incidents decreased to 594, the lowest level since 2011.
Anecdotal data gathered on prices paid to poachers historically in Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania and South Africa in 2018 were erratic and showed no clear trend. The consensus among experts interviewed, however, was that the price increased dramatically between 2013 and 2014 and had declined since then.
The World Wildlife Seizures database shows a strongly increasing trend in the number and weight of Rhino horns seized, from 16 seizures in 2008 to 105 in 2017. This trend stands in contrast to the declining number of poaching incidents and suggests increased enforcement has resulted in a higher share of the illicit flow being captured or that some of the horn being seized is flowing from either public or private stockpiles. Based on World Wildlife Seizures data between 2014 and 2019 where the final destination was known, accounting for about two metric tons of horn, more than three-quarters of the weight of horn was destined for China and Viet Nam. Many of the seizures made in South Africa were domestic; the intended destination of this horn was unknown.
Because Rhino horn is relatively portable and value intensive, the vast majority is trafficked by air in luggage and personal baggage (sometimes wrapped in tinfoil) and is seized at airports with a relatively large number of seizures involving arrests. According to World Wildlife Seizures data for the period 2010 to 2017, Chinese (including 24 suspects in 2017 alone), Vietnamese, Indian, and South African nationals are most commonly implicated in Rhinoceros horn smuggling. Most of the Chinese suspects were arrested in China or South Africa; most of the Vietnamese in Viet Nam or Mozambique. All the Indians arrested were arrested in India, but it is unclear whether the horn they were carrying was of African or Indian origin. All the South Africans associated with seizures recorded in World Wildlife Seizures database were arrested in their home country, although, according to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species Secretariat, in April 2019 a South African national was arrested in Viet Nam and 13 Rhino horns confiscated. Maputo (in the suburb of Matola and at Maputo International Airport), Johannesburg and Hanoi are the three places where the most Rhino horn has been seized.
More recent seizures found in World Wildlife Seizures include the following: On 20 August 2018, 116 kg of Rhino horn en route to Viet Nam were seized by Malaysia. In January 2019, 116 kg of Rhino horn en route to Dubai were seized in South Africa. On 8 February 2019, 21 Rhino horns coming from South Africa and en route to Viet Nam were seized in Istanbul, Turkey. On 14 February 2019, 40 kg of Rhino horn coming from South Africa and en route to Viet Nam was seized in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China. On 5 April 2019, 82.5 kg Rhino horn from South Africa and en route to Malaysia were seized in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
Since most of these seizures took place in the first quarter of 2019 and amounted to almost 500 kg, the year is on track to be another record year for Rhino horn seizures. At the same time, poaching is clearly declining. If the 600 Rhinos poached in South Africa in 2019 all bore five kilograms of horn, then about three metric tons would have generated that year, and more than one-sixth of that total would have been seized in just the five seizures detailed above.The conclusion is that either the rate of interdiction has gone up or that a non-poaching source of Rhino horn must be feeding the market, such as stockpiles.
Number of people arrested for Rhino horn trafficking by nationality, 2010-2017. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime 2020 World Wildlife Crime Report.Based on trafficking data, most Rhino horn is destined for the consumer markets in China and Viet Nam. Recent market surveys have shown that, similar to ivory, demand for Rhino horn in Viet Nam often involves Chinese nationals seeking to move the product to China. These surveys indicate a growing demand for Rhino horn jewellery and décor items, including traditional libation bowls, rather than medicine. Similar to Elephant ivory, the prices paid for Rhino horn appear to be in decline in Viet Nam since around 2014 or 2015.
It is too soon to confirm a decline in the Rhino horn market. Like ivory, declines in new supply (poaching) seem to be teamed with declines in price in the destination markets. Unlike ivory, seizures show a clear and consistent upward trend. This could be due to improvements in the rate of interdiction or a genuine increase in the flow. If the flow has increased as poaching has decreased, this could suggest the new supply is coming from existing stocks. Many of these stockpiles are in private hands and can be sold in some range states. Sellers may be motivated by declining prices and possibly declining interest.
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