European land-surface temperature record expected to be broken in Italy this month.

The European Space Agency is predicting a new European land-surface temperature record will be set later this month (July 2023), exceeding the record of 48.8°C set in the town of Floridia on Sicily on 11 August 2023. Much of Europe has been suffering a sustained heatwave, and temperatures are expected to climb further in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Germany, and Poland. The hottest temperatures are expected in Sardinia and Sicily, both of which are likely to see temperatures rise above 48°C. The high temperatures are being driven by an anticyclone (named Cerberus after the beast from Dante's Inferno), currently moving over Italy from the south, and expected to bring sustained temperatures in excess of 40°C to much of the country.

The predictions are based upon data from the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite, which recorded surface temperatures in excess of 45°C across much of Italy, including Rome, Naples, Taranto and Foggia, on 9-10 July. The satellite also recorded temperatures in excess of 50°C on the eastern flank of Mount Etna, although this was in an area without ground sensors, and therefore cannot be confirmed as a record.

Land surface temperatures captured by the Copernicus Sentinal-3 satellite on 9 and 10 July 2023. The temperatures were recorded at 11.00 am Central European Summer Time, and is likely to have risen through the afternoon. European Space Agency.

Unlike standard weather forecasts, which use the temperature of moving air packages to predict temperatures, Copernicus Sentinal-3 directly measures the ground surface temperature, typically significantly higher than the atmosphere above it. Monitoring of ground surface temperature as well as air temperature enables more accurate forecasting, and a better understanding of climate patterns, as well as providing vital data for farmers and urban planners. 

On 10 July 2023 the temperature reached 46°C in Rome and Madrid, and 47°C in Seville. In the coming week sustained temperatures in excess of 44°C are predicted across much of Spain, and 45°C across much of Italy. 

The high temperatures are being driven by a combination of global warming and an El Niño system which has developed over the South Pacific, and present a severe challenge to food production, water availability, and Human health. The World Meteorological Organization recorded new hottest global average temperatures on three days in early July, and this June was the hottest June on record.

The El Niño is the warm phase of a long-term climatic oscillation affecting the southern Pacific, which can influence the climate around the world. The onset of El Niño conditions is marked by a sharp rise in temperature and pressure over the southern Indian Ocean, which then moves eastward over the southern Pacific. This pulls rainfall with it, leading to higher rainfall over the Pacific and lower rainfall over South Asia. This reduced rainfall during the already hot and dry summer leads to soaring temperatures in southern Asia, followed by a rise in rainfall that often causes flooding in the Americas and sometimes Africa. Worryingly climatic predictions for the next century suggest that global warming could lead to more frequent and severe El Niño conditions, extreme weather conditions a common occurrence.

Movements of air masses and changes in precipitation in an El Niño weather system. Fiona Martin/NOAA.

A study led by Joan Ballester of the Instituto de Salud Global de Barcelona and published in the journal Nature Medicine on 10 July 2023, found that 60 000 people died of heat-related conditions across Europe in the summer of 2022, with the highest mortality rates in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal.

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