More than 900 people have now been confirmed dead and over 3000 are still missing following a glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border.

More than 800 people are now known to have died and more than 3000 are still missing following a glacier collapse on the border between Nepal and Tibet on Wednesday 26 August 2026. The incident was first recorded as a Magnitude 4.4 Earthquake by the United States Geological Survey at 2.52 am GMT, which is 8.37 am in Nepal and 10.52 am in Tibet (Tibet has been part of China since the 1950s, and China uses a single time-zone for all its territory, leading to a two-and-a-half hour time gap between Tibet and Nepal, despite their having a similar longitude), a figure which was revised to a Magnitude 5.2 event shortly after. Seven minutes after this a flash flood and debris flow hit the Gyirong Port border crossing between Nepal and Tibet, before passing along the Lhende Khola River Valley in Nepal and into the Trishuli River system.

CCTV footage of a flash flood and debris flow hit the Gyirong Port border crossing between Nepal and Tibet on Wednesday 26 August 2026. Hong Kong Standard.

This event was initially interpreted as an Earthquake-induced glacier collapse, probably caused by a glacier shattering and releasing a melt-lake which had built up behind it. Such events are the most common form of glacier collapse, and are particularly associated with warming global temperatures. Essentially, glaciers begin to melt behind their leading edge, with the amount of ice in front of the growing lake slowly decreasing till the whole edifice collapses. However satellite images taken in the days before the collapse revealed no such lake, and it is now thought that a chunk of glacier with an area of about 200 000 m², and a volume of 1-2 million m³, broke off a glacier at an altitude of between 5200  m and 5400 m above sealevel, then dropped vertically about 1200 m into the valley below. This impact caused the event which the United States Geological Survey interpreted as an Earthquake.

CCTV footage of a debris flow hitting the Gyrong Port Border Crossing on Wednesday 26 August 2026. Resonoud News (响亮新闻)/Wikimedia Commons.

Approximately seven minutes after this initial collapse, the Gyirong Port Border Crossing was hit by a flood and debris flow 80 m high, travelling at approximately 180 km per hour (50 m per second). This remarkable velocity was driven largely by the steep nature of the high mountain valleys, with the Gyirong Port border crossing being approximately 3000 m lower than the initial impact point of the falling glacier. The debris flow continued down the valley for approximately 100 km, sweeping away 41 bridges and 42 km of road, as well as the Gyirong Port border crossing in Tibet and the corresponding Rasuwagadhi Customs Office in Nepal, as well as numerous homes and other buildings, and causing significant damage to six hydroelectric projects in Nepal. Bodies of victims of this flood event have been found as far away as Uttar Pradesh in northern India, more than 250 km from the initial glacier collapse event.

The remains of a bridge in Nepal swept away by the 26 August 2026 floods. Ritesh Shukla/Getty Images.

Glacier collapses are a part of the natural cycle of events within the Himalayas. The mountains here are not static, but are actively growing as the northward movement of the Indian Plate pushes up the overlying Eurasian plate. This means that glaciers which sit upon these mountains are slowly raised to ever higher altitudes, while at the same time becoming ever more steeply inclined. Eventually, this situation becomes unstable, and gravity overcomes the ability of the ice to stick to the underlying rocks, causing sections of glacier to collapse down the sides of the mountains.

Block diagram showing how the impact of the Indian Plate into Eurasia is causing uplift on the Tibetan Plateau. Jayne Doucette/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

This situation is made significantly worse by rising global temperatures, with the Himalayan region warming at twice the global average, which lead to higher rates of melting on glaciers in the Himalayas. The problem here is not just that the ice melts, but that when it does the water tends to percolate downward through any cracks or holes in the glacier surface, eventually pooling on the underside of the glacier. This creates a layer of liquid water over which the glacier can flow, which is the natural way in which glaciers move in lowland areas, but can lead to catastrophic consequences on high, steeply inclined glaciers.

This warming does not just threaten glaciers in these regions; many of the highest mountains are effectively rubble piles held together by ice and frozen soil (permafrost). As the Himalayas warm this ice can thaw, leading to parts of mountains breaking away, leading to more and larger landslides and rockfalls in an area where these are already a major threat to both lives and infrastructure. 

Rescue efforts following the 26 August event have been greatly impacted by the loss of roads and bridges, as well as the large amounts of mud and silt left behind by the floods. Rescue workers have often had to wade through deep mud to reach communities cut off by the floods, with other communities only accessible by helicopter. 

Floodwaters and debris passing through a community in Nepal on Wednesday 26 August 2026. Safal Prakash Shrestha/JNA Press/ZUMA Press/Shutterstock.

Concerns were raised about a second flood hitting the area on Thursday 27 August, after Chinese authorities discovered a barrier lake which had formed behind debris deposited at the confluence of the Chhochen Khola and Purepu Tsangpo rivers in Tibet. At the time, there was an estimated three million cubic metres of water in this lake, which had begun to overtop the barrier, leading to fears of an imminent collapse. However, this lake subsequently drained away naturally without Human interference, and had largely disappeared by Sunday 30 August. 

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At least thirteen deaths amid flooding in Accra, Ghana.

At least thirteen people have died and a further seven are missing following flooding in the Ghanaian capitol, Accra, following a heavy rainstorm overnight between Sunday 28 and Monday 29 June 2026, with over 38 800 people from more than 7750 households displaced by floodwaters. The worst affected areas of the city is Ga East, where five people are known to have died, and another 2000 people have been displaced from their homes, and Ayawaso Central three people have died and one is missing, while about 3020 people have been displaced. Another three people have died in Tema West, where about 3450 have been displaced. In Ledzokuku one person has died and around 1200 have been displaced by the flooding. 

In Ga Central over 1800 people have been displaced, but there are no reports of any fatalities of missing persons, while in Ga West about 2300 people have been displaced, again with no reports of fatalities or missing persons. About 1850 people have been displaced from their homes in Adentan, while about 6500 have been displaced from  Korle Klottey. About 2620 people have been displaced by flooding in Okaikwei North, while in Okaikwei South the figure is about 3450 people. In Tema Metropolis about 3600 people were displaced, but no casualties have been reported. About 2200 people have been displaced by flooding in La Dadekotopon, and about 1100 in Krowor.

Officials from the Ghanaian National Disaster Management Organisation and soldiers from the 48 Engineer Regiment of the Ghana Armed Forces rescue people trapped by floodwaters in Accra, Ghana. National Disaster Management Organisation.

Outside of Accra, twenty houses are reported to have collapsed due to flooding in the Cape Coast Metropolis, with five people killed inside one of these buildings when it collapsed, and a sixth person drowning in a separate incident. Two people were killed in another building collapse in Mfantsiman, with another person drowning separately, and in Gomoa Central one person was killed in a building collapse and another drowned. Altogether, 58 houses are reported to have been destroyed in Central Region, with flooding also reported in the Volta and Western North regions.

June falls in the middle of the rainy season in Accra, with the city receiving an average of 175 mm of rain during the month. West Africa has a distinct two season climatic cycle, with a cool dry season during the northern winter when prevalent winds blow from the Sahara to the northeast, and a warm rainy season during the northern summer when prevalent winds blow from the Atlantic Ocean to the southwest. These warm winds from the Atlantic are laden with moisture, which can be lost rapidly when the air encounters cooler conditions.

Rainfall and prevalent winds during the West African dry and rainy seasons. Encyclopedia Britanica.

However, this year's rains have been far heavier than usual, with 169.2 mm of rain falling in 24 hours on Sunday 28 March, the fourth highest level of rainfall in a single day ever recorded in Ghana, and 593.2 mm of rain falling in June, the wettest month ever recorded in the city. The previous record-holding year was 2002, when 420.6 mm of rain fell in Accra during June, a figure which this year has exceeded by more than the average rainfall for the month. These rising rain levels are linked to greater sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean as the global climate warms, which leads to greater levels of evaporation from the sea, followed by increased precipitation on land.

Nevertheless, the high rainfall levels are not thought to be the main cause of the flooding which Accra has been suffering this week. Instead, local authorities are blaming the city's lax building controls, which have led to buildings and settlements spreading over and covering up drainage systems, as well as covering areas that were formally open soil with concrete, preventing water from soaking away. This has led to orders fir several illegally built properties to be demolished in the wake of the floods, though local community groups are asking for more consultation before any such plans are implemented, as in the past authorities have demolished properties without any plan to resettle their occupants, resulting in the rebuilding of properties once the authorities have left.

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Three dead and two missing following flash flood in Arunachal Pradesh.

Three people have been confirmed dead and another two are missing following a flash flood in the Keyi Panyor District of Arunachal Pradesh State, India, on Wednesday 24 June 2026. A further 54 families have been displaced by the incident, in which waters from the Rangandani River Dam Lake over-topped a wall surrounding a residential camp for employees of the North Eastern Electric Power Corporation working on the Panyor Lower Hydroelectric Project (also known as the Rangandani Dam), following days of heavy rain associated with the Summer Monsoon. 

Damage caused by a flash flood which swept through a residential block for workers at a hydroelectric dam in Arunachal Pradesh, India, on 24 June 2026. ANI.

About thirty houses were destroyed at the dam workers colony, with another ten houses destroyed and fourteen damaged in related incidents in neighbouring communities, which have also been hit by flooding and landslide events caused by heavy rains in the area. Landslides are a common problem after severe weather, as excess pore water pressure can overcome cohesion in soil and sediments, allowing them to flow like liquids. Approximately 90% of all landslides are caused by heavy rainfall. Several major roads in the area have also been damaged, and the heavy rains are making air transport difficult, hampering the efforts of rescue workers.

Arunchal Pradesh has a monsoon season that begins around the end of April or beginning of May and ends around September, bringing 2-4000 mm of rain to the region each year. In the twenty four hours prior to the incident, 74 mm of rainfall had fallen in the area, which is high, but should not have been sufficient to cause flooding at a camp with flood defences on a dam lake where the water level can be controlled to some extent by releasing water from the dam. This has led to speculation that an earlier incident, such as a landslide, may have temporarily blocked the flow of the river upstream of the dam lake, and that when this temporary blockage failed, a large amount of water surged downstream overcoming the colony's flood defences.

Monsoons are tropical sea breezes triggered by heating of the land during the warmer part of the year (summer). Both the land and sea are warmed by the Sun, but the land has a lower ability to absorb heat, radiating it back so that the air above landmasses becomes significantly warmer than that over the sea, causing the air above the land to rise and drawing in water from over the sea; since this has also been warmed it carries a high evaporated water content, and brings with it heavy rainfall. In the tropical dry season the situation is reversed, as the air over the land cools more rapidly with the seasons, leading to warmer air over the sea, and thus breezes moving from the shore to the sea (where air is rising more rapidly) and a drying of the climate. 

Diagrammatic representation of wind and rainfall patterns in a tropical monsoon climate. Geosciences/University of Arizona.

This situation is particularly intense in South Asia, due to the presence of the Himalayas. High mountain ranges tend to force winds hitting them upwards, which amplifies the South Asian Summer Monsoon, with higher winds leading to more upward air movement, thus drawing in further air from the sea. However, despite the incidents in Arunachal Pradesh this week, the Indian Monsoon is predicted to be be week this year, due to a developing el Niño system over the southern Pacific Ocean, leading to concerns that the country could suffer widespread droughts and famine this year.

The el Niño is the warm phase of a long-term climatic oscillation affecting the southern Pacific, which can influence the climate around the world. The onset of el Niño conditions is marked by a sharp rise in temperature and pressure over the southern Indian Ocean, which then moves eastward over the southern Pacific. This pulls rainfall with it, leading to higher rainfall over the Pacific and lower rainfall over South Asia. This reduced rainfall during the already hot and dry summer leads to soaring temperatures in southern Asia, followed by a rise in rainfall that often causes flooding in the Americas and sometimes Africa. Worryingly climatic predictions for the next century suggest that global warming could lead to more frequent and severe el Niño conditions, extreme weather conditions a common occurrence.

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The potential for a major El Niño event developing soon, and for 2026 to be the hottest year on record.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation system is a major driver of the Earth's climate variations, driven by fluctuations in the temperature in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. This has two phases, El Niño, in which surface temperatures are high, and La Niña, in which they are low (although the Pacific is not always in one of these phases, there are neutral periods when neither occurs). The impacts of these oscillations are complex, but overall, the El Niño phase is associated with warmer global temperatures, while the La Niña phase is associated with cooler global temperatures. The warmest year on record, 2024, was associated with an El Niño phase.

In March 2026, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts began issuing warnings that the Pacific Ocean might be going to enter an El Niño phase in 2026. This is in some ways surprising, the ocean was still in a La Niña phase in March, and predictions made this early in the year are not usually considered reliable. Furthermore, less than three years had passed since the most recent El Niño phase, which is in itself unusual.

Map of sea-surface temperature anomaly issued in March 2026 and valid for June, July and August. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

However, the El Niño Southern Oscillation system does not operate in isolation. The temperatures in the Pacific surface waters during the 2015-2016 and 2024 El Niño events were significantly higher than the 1997-98 event, which was the warmest event of the 20th century. Furthermore, the La Niña phases bracketing these 21st century events were much less extreme than those around the 1997-98 event (that is the surface waters did not cool as much), so these events were much less extreme in the sense that they did not drift as far from the average sea surface temperatures over a longer period. In fact, the three most recent La Niña phases have been accompanied by Pacific Ocean temperatures warmer than during the 1997-98 El Niño event.

On 15 April 2026 the UK's Met Office issued a warning that there was likely to be a severe El Niño event in 2026-2027, and on 14 May, the Climate Prediction Service of the United States National Weather Service also issued a press release warning that their predictions gave an 82% chance of the Pacific entering an El Niño phase between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance that El Niño conditions would exist between December 2026 and February 2027.

The reason behind the earliness and severity of these warnings is based upon a change in how predictions are made. Previously, predictions have been made upon the temperature of the surface of the ocean, which has not allowed for very long predictions. However, recent research has shown that a much more accurate, and longer-term, prediction can be made if the temperature of the top 300 m is used. 

In March 2026, the average temperature for the top 300 m of water in the central Pacific was already 1.0°C above baseline temperatures. This in itself is consistent with an El Niño, or even super El Niño event (an event, such as that in 1997-98, in which the surface waters of the Pacific are not just exceptionally warm, but at least 2.0°C warmer than the recent average sea temperatures). In the first week of April the temperature of these waters continued to rise sharply, reaching 1.6°C above baseline temperatures.

This has the potential to have a profound impact on the global average temperature. Predictions already suggested 2026 would be a hot year, with a 62% chance of being one of the four hottest years on record, and a 19% chance of being the hottest year (i.e. temperatures exceeding those of 2024). It has been suggested that there is a 30% chance of 2026 being the second year in which global average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (defined as average temperatures between 1850 and 1900). The sharp increase in the temperature of the waters of the Pacific now makes these predictions look more-or-less inevitable.

An El Niño event has a number of profound affects upon the climate. South America tends to have much higher rainfall during El Niño events, while Indonesia, Australia, and Southeast Asia can suffer severe droughts. In India and Africa, rainfall patterns can be affected in less predictable ways, with some areas suffering high rainfall and flooding while others suffer severe droughts. Tropical storms become less common in the Atlantic, but more frequent in the Pacific. 

This is likely to have implications for food production in many parts of the world, with a combination of droughts and floods triggered by an El Niño event coming at the same time as fertiliser shortages triggered by Iran having closed the Straits of Hormuz in response to the Israeli and US attack earlier this year, making famine events likely. At the same time, the agencies which might provide relief during such events are suffering from a much reduced ability to act following the withdrawal of funding by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. This is situation is also likely to be impacted by predicted rises in fuel prices, also triggered by the war in the Gulf of Persia, further limiting international agencies ability to respond to any crisis. 

A super El Niño event, starting from a base of record high sea temperatures, which now appears very likely, could have even more severe impacts. The super El Niño event of 1876 triggered a global famine which killed around 50 million people, about 3% of the world's population at that time. On this occasion the El Niño event caused the almost total collapse of the South Asian Monsoon, leading to the worst drought in 800 years, with concurrent droughts across Australia, Southeast Asia, Brazil, and North and Southern Africa (although it is also generally accepted that the high mortality rates in India were driven as much by the policies of the British colonial government as the drought itself).

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Avalanche kills two in the Italian Alps.

Two people have been killed and another five injured, three severely, following an avalanche on Mount Hohe Ferse (or Tallone Grande), a 2669 m peak in the Eastern Rhaetan Alps of Italy's Alto Adige (or South Tyrol) Province, on Saturday 21 March 2025. The avalanche, which is described as having been about 150 m wide, occurred at an altitude of about 2400 m, and caught 25 skiers in total.

Rescue workers searching for people trapped beneath the snow following an avalanche on Mount Hohe Ferse in the Eastern Rhaetan Alps on Saturday 21 March 2026. Corpo Nazionale Soccorso Alpino e Speleologico.

Avalanches are caused by the mechanical failure of snowpacks; essentially when the weight of the snow above a certain point exceeds the carrying capacity of the snow at that point to support its weight. This can happen for two reasons, because more snow falls upslope, causing the weight to rise, or because snow begins to melt downslope, causing the carrying capacity to fall. Avalanches may also be triggered by other events, such as Earthquakes or rockfalls. Contrary to what is often seen in films and on television, avalanches are not usually triggered by loud noises. Because snow forms layers, with each layer typically occurring due to a different snowfall, and having different physical properties, multiple avalanches can occur at the same spot, with the failure of a weaker layer losing to the loss of the snow above it, but other layers below left in place - to potentially fail later.

Diagrammatic representation of an avalanche, showing how layering of snow contributes to these events. Expedition Earth.

The incident brings the number of people killed in avalanches in Europe this winter to 127, including 33 in Italy, 31 in France, 29 in Austria, 15 in Switzerland, eight in Spain, six in Slovakia, and one each in Poland and Andorra. This means that this snow season in Europe (which is not yet over) has already produced the second highest recorded number of deaths, exceeded only by the winter of 2017/18, when 147 people died. 

This high number of fatalities appears to be linked to the warming climate, which has several knock-on effects that can lead to avalanches. Firstly, warmer conditions over the Atlantic lead to higher evaporation levels and therefore more moist air flowing over Europe, which tends to precipitate out as snow when it encounters cold updraughts above the continent's mountain ranges. Secondly, the snow itself is warmer, in many places failing to form the deeply frozen lower layers that tend to keep the snowpack in place. Finally, the higher temperature of the atmosphere tends to lead to windier conditions, which also prevents snow settling in a single place, often leading to moving drifts, which are much more prone to avalanching than solid snowpack.

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