The potential for a major El Niño event developing soon, and for 2026 to be the hottest year on record.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation system is a major driver of the Earth's climate variations, driven by fluctuations in the temperature in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. This has two phases, El Niño, in which surface temperatures are high, and La Niña, in which they are low (although the Pacific is not always in one of these phases, there are neutral periods when neither occurs). The impacts of these oscillations are complex, but overall, the El Niño phase is associated with warmer global temperatures, while the La Niña phase is associated with cooler global temperatures. The warmest year on record, 2024, was associated with an El Niño phase.

In March 2026, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts began issuing warnings that the Pacific Ocean might be going to enter an El Niño phase in 2026. This is in some ways surprising, the ocean was still in a La Niña phase in March, and predictions made this early in the year are not usually considered reliable. Furthermore, less than three years had passed since the most recent El Niño phase, which is in itself unusual.

Map of sea-surface temperature anomaly issued in March 2026 and valid for June, July and August. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

However, the El Niño Southern Oscillation system does not operate in isolation. The temperatures in the Pacific surface waters during the 2015-2016 and 2024 El Niño events were significantly higher than the 1997-98 event, which was the warmest event of the 20th century. Furthermore, the La Niña phases bracketing these 21st century events were much less extreme than those around the 1997-98 event (that is the surface waters did not cool as much), so these events were much less extreme in the sense that they did not drift as far from the average sea surface temperatures over a longer period. In fact, the three most recent La Niña phases have been accompanied by Pacific Ocean temperatures warmer than during the 1997-98 El Niño event.

On 15 April 2026 the UK's Met Office issued a warning that there was likely to be a severe El Niño event in 2026-2027, and on 14 May, the Climate Prediction Service of the United States National Weather Service also issued a press release warning that their predictions gave an 82% chance of the Pacific entering an El Niño phase between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance that El Niño conditions would exist between December 2026 and February 2027.

The reason behind the earliness and severity of these warnings is based upon a change in how predictions are made. Previously, predictions have been made upon the temperature of the surface of the ocean, which has not allowed for very long predictions. However, recent research has shown that a much more accurate, and longer-term, prediction can be made if the temperature of the top 300 m is used. 

In March 2026, the average temperature for the top 300 m of water in the central Pacific was already 1.0°C above baseline temperatures. This in itself is consistent with an El Niño, or even super El Niño event (an event, such as that in 1997-98, in which the surface waters of the Pacific are not just exceptionally warm, but at least 2.0°C warmer than the recent average sea temperatures). In the first week of April the temperature of these waters continued to rise sharply, reaching 1.6°C above baseline temperatures.

This has the potential to have a profound impact on the global average temperature. Predictions already suggested 2026 would be a hot year, with a 62% chance of being one of the four hottest years on record, and a 19% chance of being the hottest year (i.e. temperatures exceeding those of 2024). It has been suggested that there is a 30% chance of 2026 being the second year in which global average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (defined as average temperatures between 1850 and 1900). The sharp increase in the temperature of the waters of the Pacific now makes these predictions look more-or-less inevitable.

An El Niño event has a number of profound affects upon the climate. South America tends to have much higher rainfall during El Niño events, while Indonesia, Australia, and Southeast Asia can suffer severe droughts. In India and Africa, rainfall patterns can be affected in less predictable ways, with some areas suffering high rainfall and flooding while others suffer severe droughts. Tropical storms become less common in the Atlantic, but more frequent in the Pacific. 

This is likely to have implications for food production in many parts of the world, with a combination of droughts and floods triggered by an El Niño event coming at the same time as fertiliser shortages triggered by Iran having closed the Straits of Hormuz in response to the Israeli and US attack earlier this year, making famine events likely. At the same time, the agencies which might provide relief during such events are suffering from a much reduced ability to act following the withdrawal of funding by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. This is situation is also likely to be impacted by predicted rises in fuel prices, also triggered by the war in the Gulf of Persia, further limiting international agencies ability to respond to any crisis. 

A super El Niño event, starting from a base of record high sea temperatures, which now appears very likely, could have even more severe impacts. The super El Niño event of 1876 triggered a global famine which killed around 50 million people, about 3% of the world's population at that time. On this occasion the El Niño event caused the almost total collapse of the South Asian Monsoon, leading to the worst drought in 800 years, with concurrent droughts across Australia, Southeast Asia, Brazil, and North and Southern Africa (although it is also generally accepted that the high mortality rates in India were driven as much by the policies of the British colonial government as the drought itself).

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Explosion at coal mine in Shanxi Province, China, kills at least 82 people.

At least 82 miners have died in an explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi Province, China, on Saturday 23 May 2026. The incident happened at Liushenyu Coal Mine in Qinyuan County slightly before 7.30 pm local time at which 247 workers were below ground. The majority of those have now been evacuated, with 128 people being treated in hospital, two of whom are described as being in a serious condition and two more still missing. 

Rescue workers arriving at Liushenyu Coal Mine in Shanxi Province, China, following an explosion at a coal mine on 23 May 2026. Zhu Xingxin/China Daily.

Survivors of the incident report seeing a dust plume rather than hearing an explosion, accompanied by a strong sulphurous smell and then many people blacking out. The majority of those killed and injured are reported to have been affected by gas poisoning. 

Coal is formed when buried organic material, principally wood, in heated and pressurised, forcing off hydrogen and oxygen (i.e. water) and leaving more-or-less pure carbon. Methane is formed by the decay of organic material within the coal. There is typically little pore-space within coal, but the methane can be trapped in a liquid form under pressure. Some countries have started to extract this gas as a fuel in its own right. When this pressure is released suddenly, as by mining activity, then the methane turns back to a gas, expanding rapidly causing, an explosion. This is a bit like the pressure being released on a carbonated drink; the term 'explosion' does not necessarily imply fire in this context, although as methane is flammable this is quite likely.

Chinese authorities have dispatched six specialist rescue teams to the site, with a total of 345 personnel and a number of specialist robots capable of entering mines inaccessible to Human rescuers. These have found flooding in the area where the explosion took place, as well as high carbon monoxide levels throughout much of the mine. They have also found that the blueprints of the mine provided by its owners, the Tongzhou Group, do not match the actual layout. 

The mine's management, which have previously been given penalties for administrative failures twice in 2025, are now under investigation for a number of breaches, including developing new coal faces which were not on plans, falsification of health and safety documentation, poor employee records, and illegal uses of subcontractors. Four other mines operated by the Tongzhou Group have been temporarily closed, and mines across Shanxi Province are being subjected to emergency inspections.

Historically, the Chinese coal industry has been beset by safety problems, at least in part due to the rapid expansion of the industry to fuel the country's industrialisation. In the past two decades a major drive towards introducing safety measures combined with a switch away from coal towards renewable sources of energy has reduced the number of such incidents. However, coal is still a major industry, with about a quarter of the coal extracted in China coming from Shanxi Province, and safety clearly still remains a problem.

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Algeria, Australia, and Tunisia have all eliminated Trachoma as a public health risk.

On 23 April 2026 the World Health Organization published a press release confirming that Algeria had eliminated Trachoma, a transmissible Bacterial disease which is thew world's leading infectious cause of blindness. On 29 April a second press release confirmed that Australia had eliminated the disease. On 14 May a third press release confirmed that Trachoma had also been eliminated in Tunisia. This brings the number of countries which have eliminated the once widespread tropical disease to 31. Countries where it has previously been eliminated are: Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Fiji, The Gambia, Ghana, India, Iraq, Iran, Laos, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu and Vietnam.

Regular examination of eyes at risk can help to reduce the incidence of communicable diseases such as Trachoma. Lily Solomon/World Health Organization.

Trachoma is caused by the Bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis, and spread through contact with mucus emitted from the eyes and nose during infection, and can be spread by Flies. Infections are most common among children, and the disease can spread rapidly in overcrowded environments, particularly where sanitation is poor and access to clean water is limited. The Bacterium infects the inside of the eyelid, causing a roughening which can in turn lead to damage to the surface of the eye. Eventually the disease can lead to the eyelids turning inwards, blinding the patient. Infections are generally fought off fairly quickly, particularly in adults, but having been infected does not offer protection against future infections, and the damage caused by each infection is cumulative. Chlamydia trachomatis is vulnerable to the antibiotics azithromycin and tetracycline.

McCoy cell monolayer micrograph reveals a number of intracellular Chlamydia trachomatis inclusion bodies; Magnified 200 times. The intracellular inclusion body represents the replication phase of the Chlamydia spp. organisms, whereupon, the reorganised reticulate body multiplies through binary fission into 100-500 new reticulate bodies, which mature into elementary bodies. Eugene Arum/Norman Jacobs/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Wikimedia Commons.

All three countries have been waging public health campaigns against Trachoma for many decades, with recent successes in eliminating infections attributed to the adoption of the World Health Organization's 'SAFE' strategy on the disease. This relies on four pillars, Surgery, which is used to save patients sight before it is lost in advances cases, Antibiotics, which are administered en masse during outbreaks, Facial cleanliness, in which large scale public health campaigns promote personal hygeine as a way to stop the spread of the disease, and Environment, in which access to clean water and good sanitation is improved. 

Mural promoting facial cleanliness to eliminate Trachoma, at Warburton in Western Australia. Minum Barreng: Indigenous Eye Health Unit/University of Melbourne/World Health Organization.

Both Algeria and Tunisia have historically had particular problems with Trachoma in their more arid southern provinces, where access to clean water has been limited. It has been estimated that in the early and mid twentieth centuries, as much as half of the population of southern Tunisia may have been affected by the disease.

World Health Organization consultant, Mario Tarizzo, prepares to take an eye smear from a school child at Srendi on the Tunisian island of Djerba. The World Health Organization has supported long-standing efforts in Tunisia to eliminate Trachoma, a disease of the eye that can cause blindness if left untreated. Eric Schwab/World Health Organization.

In Australia Trachoma was eliminated in much of the country decades ago, but has persisted in many remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, where access to both clean water and healthcare facilities can be very limited, and not everyone speaks English as a first language. In recent years bringing healthcare to such communities has been driven by a network of Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations, which are better able to understand the healthcare needs of indigenous Australians, and deliver solutions in a culturally appropriate way.

Trachoma is one of 21 Neglected Tropical Diseases associated with devastating health, social and economic consequences outlined in the Roadmap proposed by the World Health Organization's Executive Board at its 146th session in February 2020, and adopted by the Seventy-third World Health Assembly in November 2020. This Roadmap aims to control, eliminate, or eradicate all of these diseases by 2021, in line with the United Nation's third Sustainable Development Goal: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. The elimination of Trachoma in Algeria and Tunisia makes then the 62nd and 63rd countries to have eliminated at least one Neglected Tropical Disease since the adoption of the Roadmap.

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At least 111 dead as high winds and dust storms sweep across Uttar Pradesh.

At least 111 people have died and another 59 have been injured as high winds and dust storms swept across Uttar Pradesh State in northern India on Wednesday 13 May 2026. The storms also damaged at least 227 homes and killed at least 200 head of livestock. Most of the injuries and fatalities have been attributed to falling trees, and in some cases walls. One man working on installing a metal roof on a warehouse building was thrown 15 m into the air when the winds tore the roof away, but miraculously survived. 

Roofing contractor Nanhe Miyan was thrown more than 15 m into the air when a section of roof he was working on came away amid high winds in Uttar Pradesh on 13 May 2026, but escaped with minor injuries. Firstpost.

High winds and dust storms are common in Uttar Pradesh in the summer months of April, May and June, when high temperatures over the arid areas to the southwest, which include the Thar Desert of Rajasthan, the Cholistan Desert of the Punjab, and the Kharan Desert of Baluchistan, can reach 45-50°C, resulting in a hot dry wind known as the 'loo' which blows over the North Indian Plain. This combination of heat and dry winds has a desiccating effect, causing trees to lose their leaves and much of the vegetation of the area to dry out and die (before blooming again with the onset of the monsoon season). It can also be very harmful to Humans, with deaths from heatstroke most common at this time of year.

However, this week's storm was a more exceptional event, bringing with it winds of over 160 km per hour, as well as heavy rainfall, something not usually associated with the loo winds. This appears to have been brought about by the interplay between a the loo wind and two cool cyclonic systems, one of which was located over northern Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir, the other over Haryana and the northwestern part of Uttar Pradesh, according to the India Meteorological Department. The cyclonic systems had already been drawing in warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal, and when they encountered the loo winds, the moist air was forced upwards, rapidly forming cumulonimbus (thunderhead) clouds, while the dryer air wash pushed into a downdraught, leading to much higher wind speeds. 

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An embryonic Synapsid from the Early Triassic of South Africa.

 The persistence of egg-laying in modern Monotremes has led evolutionary biologists to conclude that this is likely to have been the ancestral state in the Synapsids, the group from which the Mammals arose. However, fossil evidence for this has been surprisingly absent. The earliest known potential fossil amniotic egg comes from the Permian of South America, and has been attributed to a Mesosaurid Sauropsid (a group not closely related to Synapsids of Mammals). This specimen preserves an immature skeleton curled in a position consistent with having been in an egg at the time of death, but no actual eggshell (not altogether surprising, as the earliest amniote eggs are not predicted to have been mineralised). The earliest amniotic egg fossils with both embryonic remains and eggshell come from Sauropodomorph dinosaurs from the Early Jurassic of Gondwana. Some potential eggs associated with Synapsid Pelycosaurs from the Early Permian of North America are not considered to be reliable, as neither embryos nor shell structures are preserved.

The Late Triassic-Early Jurassic Elliot Formation of South Africa's Karoo Basin has produced numerous Dinosaur egg fossils with embryos, as well as the skeletal remains of many non-Mammalian Cynodonts, something which has led to questions about whether Permo-Triassic Synapsids laid eggs at all. This is a serious consideration; Synapsids, particularly groups such as Lystrosaurus and Diictodon, are extremely common in the Permian and Triassic of the Karoo, with perinate specimens (specimens thought to have died around the time of birth or hatching) being found here and elsewhere, but no eggs are known. The preservation of Dinosaur eggs in the Karoo suggests there was no taphonomic process here producing a bias against the preservation of eggs, and palaeontologists have been active in the Karoo Basin for over 180 years, suggesting that if such eggs were present, there should have been a good chance of their being found. Egg-laying and bearing live young are found in closely related Snakes and Lizards, and it appears that this group has been able to switch back-and-forth between these conditions fairly easily. It is therefore conceivably possible that Synapsids developed the ability to bear live young very early in their history, and that Monotremes have secondarily switched back to egg-laying.

However, this has wider implications than Synapsid palaeontology. Current theories on the origin of lactation in Mammals have been built on the assumption that this preceeded the switch to live-birth (largely because Monotremes produce both eggs and milk). It is now generally accepted that the purpose of lactation was not originally to feed the young, but rather started as skin secretions used to either moisturise the eggs, provide nutrients, protect them against fungi and bacterial infections, or for hormonal signalling through the egg membrane. Should it be found that the Synapsids from which Mammals evolved bore live young, then these theories would have to be abandoned.

In a paper published in the journal PLoS One on 9 April 2026, Julien Benoit of the Evolutionary Studies Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, Vincent Fernandez of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, and Jennifer Botha of the Evolutionary Studies Institute and Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, describe three perinate specimens of the Dicynodont Synapsid Lystrosaurus from the Early Triassic of Xhariep Municipal District in Free State Province, South Africa, one of which appears to have been preserved within an egg.

The specimens examined are the three smallest specimens attributed to Lystrosaurus. They include BP/1/4011, an isolated skull measuring 43.0 mm, discovered by James Kitching in the upper Palingkloof Member of the Balfour Formation at Orangia on Tweefontein 508, BP/1/9332, an almost complete articulated skeleton with a skull length of 44.0 mm, discovered by Brandon Stuart in the upper Palingkloof Member of the Balfour Formation at Nooitgedacht 68 Farm near Spitskop, and NMQR 3636, a complete skeleton with a skull length of 34.5 mm, found by John Nyaphuli at Rheeboksfontein 5 Farm in 2008, probably from the upper Palingkloof Member of the Balfour Formation or the lower Katberg Formation.Each of these fossils was a scanned at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility in Grenoble, France, with three dimensional models being reconstructed with the Avizo Software Package.

The isolated skull BP/1/4011 was described by Kitching as the smallest known skull attributed to Lystrosaurus in 1964, and attributed to either Lystrosaurus murrayi or Lystrosaurus curvatus by a study in 2006. Benoit et al. are more cautious, attributing it to Lystrosaurus sp. but suggesting it shows affinities to Lystrosaurus curvatus.

The first of the articulated skeletons, BP/1/9332, is considered to be an early juvenile of Lystrosaurus sp., with affinities to Lystrosaurus murrayi. It is preserved in a splayed out position, similar to that of most larger Lystrosaurus specimens from the Karoo Basin, with most bones perfectly articulated, and synchrotron images show that no loose elements are preserved in the surrounding matrix. It appears to be the most developmentally advanced of the three specimens, because its splenials are co-ossified at the mandibular symphysis, although its occipital and basicranial bones remain loose. From the splayed out position in which it was found, Benoit et al. determine that it had hatched before dying, probably moving some distance from its hatching site before death.

Photograph of BP/1/9332 in dorsal view. Benoit et al. (2026).

The final specimen, NMQR 3636, is also considered by Benoit et al. to be an early juvenile of Lystrosaurus sp., with affinities to Lystrosaurus murrayi. However, unlike BP/1/9332, this specimen is curled into a fetal position, consistent with having been within an egg at the time of death. It also appears to be the most developmentally immature of the specimens, lacking tusk buds in its maxillary alveolae, something present in both the other specimens, or a mesethmoid bone, the structure that supports the olfactory bulbs in life, which is again present in the other two specimens. 

Most notably, the lower jaw of NMQR 3636 has an incompletely co-ossified symphyseal suture between the two paired bones in the lower jaw. This is completely co-ossified in both the other specimens, as well as in modern beaked Amniotes such as Turtles and Birds at the time of hatching. Modern Monotremes do hatch with an unfinished intermandibular symphysis, but these feed on milk provided by their mothers for some time after hatching, something Lystrosaurus is not thought likely to have been able to produce. 

Based upon this, Benoit et al. conclude that the early developmental stage of the skeleton, combined with a posture which would be expected of a perinate prior to hatching and a jaw which had not developed to the stage where it could feed on the hard foodstuffs likely to have been consumed by juvenile Lystrosaurus. is indicative of an Animal which died within the egg and was subsequently preserved, albeit without preservation of the egg itself.

Specimen NMQR 3636 in left lateral view. (a) Photograph of the specimen; (b) 3D digital reconstruction of the segmented bones; (c) live reconstruction by artist Sophie Vrard. Colour code for (b): vertebral elements in shades of green, ribs in blue, forelimb elements in red, femur in yellow, pelvic girdle elements in grey, skull in light red, mandible in light orange. Benoit et al. (2026).

Based upon the position of the embryo, it is estimated that the original egg was 3.65 cm long and 2.75 cm in diameter, with an internal mass of 115 cm³ and a mass of 115 g. While size estimates for adult Lystrosaurus vary, this is clearly larger compared to the size of an adult than either living Monotremes or most non-Avian Reptiles, although comparatively smaller than the eggs of Birds. This is probably indicative of a large yolk, which can feed the embryonic Animal for longer, allowing it to develop further within the egg. 

Modern Monotremes produce small eggs compared to the size of an adult, which contain comparatively little yolk material. This is possible because the young hatch at an early developmental stage, and are then nourished with milk. Interestingly, the Jurassic Tritylodontid Cynodont Kayentatherium produced eggs which were even smaller compared to the size of an adult. While Kayentatherium has been reconstructed as being quite Reptile-like in physiology, the small egg size could be a sign that it was capable of a form of lactation. It has also been suggested that Kayentatherium probably had hair, something which is known to be linked genetically to the formation of mammary glands (which produce milk), and it has also been shown that there is a genetic link between the reduction in egg yolk production and the ability to produce milk. All of which suggests that Kayentatherium may have been more Mammal-like than previously reconstructed, and that the appearance of the ability to produce milk may have been closely linked to the emergence of the Mammaliamorpha.

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