In 2024, the global mean near surface temperature of the Earth reached 1.55°C above the preindustrial average (defined by the years 1850-1900) and 1.19°C above the average for the years 1961-1990, this breaching one of the significant boundaries defined by the Paris Agreement for the first time. This was the culmination of a decade (2015-2024) in which every year was one of the ten warmest years on record, with the previous warmest year having been 2023, when global mean near surface temperature of the Earth reached 1.45°C above the preindustrial average.
Concentrations of greenhouse gasses in 2023 (the last year for which consolidated global figures are available), with carbon dioxide having reached 420 parts per million (151% of preindustrial levels), methane 1934 parts per billion (265% of preindustrial levels), and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (124% of preindustrial levels). Reports from areas which have been compiled suggest that these figures were even higher in 2024.
The oceans warmed at more that twice the rate from 2005-2024, compared to the period 1960-2005, with 2024 also producing the highest global average sea temperatures. Sealevels have also risen around the globe, driven by thermal expansion and the melting of ice sheets on land, with the average rate of increase between 2005 and 2024 being 4.7 mm. The ocean's are also becoming more acidic as they absorb carbon dioxide from the air (which reacts with water to form carbonic acid), with about a quarter of carbon dioxide emissions thought to be absorbed in this way.
The Arab Region, defined as the 22 members of the Arab League (Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen), spread across North Africa, the Near East, the Arabian Peninsula, and East Africa. This area contains considerable climatic and environmental variation, with parts of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco being more than 4000 m above sealevel, while parts of North Africa, Djibouti, and the Near East are below sealevel. The Comoros are a group of tropical islands south of the Equator, and the north coast of Africa has a largely Mediterranean climate but most of the region comprises arid and hyper-arid areas around the Tropic of Cancer and the Horn of Africa.
This region is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to the effects of Global Warming, with temperatures rising at twice the global average and droughts becoming both more frequent and more severe, impacting both agricultural output and Human survivability. At the same time, many areas are suffering from rapid urbanisation, crumbling infrastructure, rapid population growth, endemic poverty, and civil conflicts. In 2023, a storm led to a dam collapse in Libya, killing thousands of people, while in 2024 Oman and the United Arab Emirates suffered widespread flooding, emphasising a need for the region to both strengthen its resilience to climate-related events and work with other international partners to reduce the rate at which the world is warming.
In a report published on 4 December 2025, the World Meteorological Organization presents an assessment that the unprecedented global temperatures of 2024 had upon the states and peoples of the Arab Region.
Across the Arab Region, the mean near surface temperature reached 1.08°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.98°C above the 1961-2090 average; the highest average temperatures recorded in the region. This is consistent with the ongoing trend of faster warming, with temperatures in the region rising an average of 0.43°C per decade from 1991 to 2024, compared to the global average of 0.2°C per decade.
This also represents an acceleration in the rate at which the region is warming, with the average rate of increase between 1961 and 1990 having been 0.17°C per decade. The decade 2015-2024 was on average 0.58°C warmer than the period 1991-2020, and 1.44°C warmer than 1961-1990. If this rate of warming continues, then it is likely that the average near surface temperature across the region could be 1.8°C warmer than the average for 1991-2020 by 2050.
In both North Africa and the Arabian Paninsula, 2024 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures 1.23°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average, and 2.08°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average. In contrast, across the Near East and East Africa, it was the third warmest year ever recorded.
In all subregions the temperature has warmed over the past 60 years compared to pre-1960 levels. In the Near East, temperatures have risen by an average of 0.60°C per decade between 1991 and 2024, , while the Arabian Peninsula has seen an average rise of 0.49°C per decade from 1991 to 2024. North Africa saw temperatures rise an average of 0.42°C per decade from 1991 to 2024, and East Africa 0.34°C.
All subregions of the Arab Region, but some areas had more extreme conditions. In northern Algeria, the Atlas Mountains of Morocco, and much of Tunisia, temperatures exceeded 2.0°C above the 1991-2020 average, whereas temperatures such as the Rub Al-Khali (Empty Quarter) of Saudi Arabia, and parts of Oman, Yemen, Jordan, and Syria, temperatures reached 1.4-1.6°C above the 1991-2020 average. Other areas, such as central Sudan and the southeastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula had lower temperature anomalies.
For 11 of the 22 countries of the region, Algeria, Bahrain, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen, Qatar, Comoros, and Sudan, 2024 was the hottest year on record. Of these, the most exceptional temperatures were found in Algeria, which recorded an average 1.64°C above the 1991-2020 average, while at the other end of the spectrum, Sudan reached on 0.58°C above the same baseline.
Countries in the eastern and southern parts of the region also endured exceptional rainfall in 2024, reaching 150-200% of the average for 1991-2020 in Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and the Red Sea coasts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Several countries had rain-driven flooding events, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. Conversely, much of North Africa suffered from draught conditions, with Morocco, Algeria, and Libya having rainfall levels 40% below the same average. Egypt, the countries of the Near East, and Somalia also suffered below average precipitation. This aridifying of the climate in North Africa appears to be a long-term trend, with rainfall levels having decreased continuously since 2010, a process which has accelerated over the past six years. The East African subregion has had a general upward trend in precipitation levels since 1981.
Globally, ocean levels have been rising at an average of 3.45 mm per year for the past three decades, as determined by satellite altimetry (reading the distance between the known altitude of the satellite and the water surface) measurements taken between January 1993 and December 2024. However, this additional water is not spread evenly across the globe, there are regional variations driven by thermal expansion and salinity changes.
The oceans around many states of the Arab Region have been rising at a rate higher than the global average, with the Red Sea having an average sealevel rise of 4.1 mm per year, while the Arabian Gulf, and Somali coast have had an average rise of 4.0 mm per year. Elsewhere, this trend is reversed, with the Mediterranean coast of North Africa having an average sealevel rise of only 3.0 mm per year.
Much of the Arab Region saw a decrease in relative humidity (the water content of the air) in 2024, relative to the 1991-2000 base level. This was most extreme in North Africa, where relative humidity in places dropped by as much as 5.5%. Combined with the high temperatures in the same area, this led to an accelerated loss of soil moisture, increasing the heat stress suffered by crops. In other areas, this trend was reversed, with areas of the Arabian Peninsula and Sudan which had heightened rainfall levels also having an increase in relative humidity of about 5%. This combined with the higher temperatures increased the heat stress suffered by the Human population of the region.
Over the period 1981-2024 there has been a consistent downward trend in relative humidity across the Arab Region. This has been strongest in the Near East, with an average decrease of 0.8% per decade, and weakest over the Arabian Peninsula, with an average decrease of 0.3% per decade. Drops in the African subregions were intermediate, with an average drop of 0.5% per decade in North Africa, and an average drop of 0.7% per decade in East Africa. The changes tend to worsen the effects of droughts and other heat-related events.
In 2024 the Arab Region suffered 35 extreme weather and climatic events, leading to over 300 fatalities and affecting more than 3.77 million people. The most frequent such events were floods, with 22 reported, including 6 flash floods (rapid flooding events). North Africa was the area most impacted by flooding, followed by the Arabian Peninsula. Heatwaves were the second most reported climatic events, with five reported from across the Arab Region in 2024, all affecting multiple countries.
The Middle East and North Africa are two of the world's hottest regions, and all current climate predictions predict that extreme heat events are likely to become increasingly common in both areas. During 2024, the northern part of the Arab Region was particularly impacted by significant heatwaves, with Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, and eastern Algeria, suffering particularly hot conditions. However, the country most affected by extreme heat was Sudan, where several heatwaves exceeded 14 days in length. The second most impacted country was Libya, where several heatwaves exceeded 12 days in length.
All four subregions have seen an increase in the number of heatwave days, and the rate at which this is increasing has also risen in recent years, particularly in North Africa and the Near East. In 2024, parts of the Near East had 6-12 days in which the temperature exceeded 50°C, with Iraq having the most days. Temperatures exceeding 50°C were also recorded on 1-2 days in Kuwait and northeastern Saudi Arabia.
Much of the Arab Region is extremely prone to droughts. In 2024, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and parts of Libya, were the areas most affected by droughts, with Morocco suffering its sixth consecutive year of dry conditions. Syria and Iraq also suffered drought conditions in 2024, although these were less severe than those in parts of North Africa.
These drought conditions had impacts on water resource availability and agriculture. In Morocco, water levels at the Al Massira Dam (the second largest reservoir in Morocco, feeding irrigation systems for farms around Casablanca) fell to 1-2% of their capacity in February 2024. Across the Maghreb region, Wheat yields were low in 2024, as a direct consequence of the dry conditions. In Iraq, approximately half of households in the governates of Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahaddin, were forced to reduce the amount of land held under cultivation due to water shortages.
All subregions of the Arab Region suffered one of more multi-year droughts during the period 1991-2024. The Arabian Peninsula had an extended dry period from 1999 to 2013, with a brief wet spell in 2004, the Near East had a series of droughts of varying length between 2007 and 2018, East Africa suffered a peroid of drought which lasted from 2000 to 2006, and a second period from 2008 to 2012, while North Africa had droughts between 2000 and 2008, and between 2010 and 2013.
There was, however, no overall trend in the frequency of droughts, suggesting that this is a regular feature of the climate of the region, not something which is getting worse due to the effects of global warming.
Many areas of the Arab Region also suffered flooding in 2024, including flash flood events, which occurred in all subregions. These events frequently followed periods of drought, worsening their effects.
On 6 September 2024, parts of Algeria and Morocco suffered catastrophic flash floods, causing extensive damage to homes and infrastructure, and resulting in 25 fatalities (20 in Morocco and 5 in Algeria). A period of heavy rain at the end of October caused extensive flooding along the eastern seaboard of Tunisia, with the town of Lamta receiving 147 mm of rain within 24 hours.
Libya suffered two flash flood events in 2024, both in the south of the country, on 11 August and 23 September, causing significant damage to homes and infrastructure, and killing one person. In Sudan, an extreme rainfall event on 1 June caused 132 fatalities and affecting about 300 000 people. Subsequent riverine flooding inundated about 40 000 km² of croplands, causing damage to homes and infrastructure over a wide area. Flooding in Somalia in April and June killed nine people and displaced about 37 000 more, again causing significant damage to infrastructure.
On 17 January, northwest Syria was hit by severe flooding which affected about 10 000 people. Lebanin also suffered severe flooding in January, with about 3000 homes submerged and destroying about 80 km² of croplands. In total about 10 000 people were affected in Lebanon. On 18 February, a series of flash floods hit Iraq, resulting in three deaths, and affecting about 18 000 people.
Between 14 and 17 April the United Arab Emirates suffered its worst rainfall in decades, with many areas receiving more than 100 mm of rain in 24 hours. Khatam Al-Shakla region of Al Ain recorded a record rainfall of 259.5 mm in 24 hours, while Dubai, with an average annual rainfall of between 140 and 200 mm, recorded 142 mm of rainfall over the same period. This led to a series of flash floods which killed four people and resulted in damage estimated at between US$2.9 and 3.4 billion.
On 11 February heavy rainfall led to flooding which killed seven people in Oman. This was repeated on 14 April, when a series of flash floods killed 20 people and affected about 1200. Yemen suffered flooding on 16 April which affected about 40 000 people, then again between 28 July and 23 August, when over 170 000 people were affected and more than 100 were killed. Also on 23 August, 113.7 mm of rain fell on the city of Jazan on the southewestern coast of Saudi Arabia, triggering a series of flash floods.
The Arab region endured a lower number of wildfires in 2024 than is typical, although these were recorded in Sudan, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Lebanon, which endured a particularly long fire season, driven by low rainfall, dry vegetation, and high winds. In October nine different wildfires were burning in Lebanon.
Over the period 2001-2024, the East African subregion has seen wildfires burn an average of 63 900 km² of land each year, North Africa an average of 40 000 km² per year, the Near East 33 000 km², and the Arabian Peninsula 3000 km². Both East and North Africa have a long-term trend of less land being burned each year, with the average area decreasing by 14 000 km² per year each decade in East Africa and by 1000 km² per year each decade in North Africa. This trend is reversed in the Near East, where the average amount burned has been going up by 3000 km² per year each decade.
Dust and sandstorm activity over the Arabian Peninsula was fairly typical in 2024, although Qatar and Oman did record elevated levels of activity. In North Africa, Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco all recorded levels of activity above the average for the period 2001-2023. That said, such storms are generally frequent across the region, and several large events were recorded in 2024. On 24 August a large plume was detected emerging from the Sahara and passing over southern Morocco and out over the Atlantic Ocean.
In the Near East, a major storm developed in eastern Syria and northern Iraq on 14 September, transporting tonnes of dust over the Tigris and Euphrates river basins and out to the Persian Gulf over the next three days. This significantly hampered visibility, which dropped to a few metres in some urban areas, particularly within the Saladin and Baghdad governorates. The storm is reported to have injured 65 people, mostly within Balad District in the Salafin Governate.
The period 2000-2019 saw an 83% rise in weather-related natural disasters compared to 1980-1999. These events have disproportionately affected the poorest regions and most vulnerable socio-economic groups. The Arab Region is considered to be particularly vulnerable to such events, and therefore requires particular focus to be placed on preventative and mitigation efforts. The numerous such events witnessed across the region in 2024 serve to emphasise this.
Globally, estimates of losses due to natural disasters tend to be based upon insurance claims, which tends to reflect damage in wealthier countries well, but to underestimate the impacts of such events in less developed parts of the world. In the Arab Region, property and lives impacted by climate disasters are often un- or under-insured. It has been calculated that in 2024, about 1% of the population of the Arab Region (about 3.7 million people) was affected by some form of extreme climate event, including both immediate events such as storms or flash floods or longer term events such as droughts or heatwaves. However, this is probably an under-estimate, as many of the worst events happened in areas with very poor recording.
Many areas of the Arab Region suffered significant damage to private and commercial property, critical infrastructure, and agricultural land, as a result of extreme climatic events in 2024. In Lebanon, flooding affected over 10 000 people, submerging 3000 homes and about 80 km² of farmland. Flooding in Syria displaced over 9700 people, and had a particularly harsh affect upon people living in tents in refugee camps. In the United Arab Emirates, similar floods in Dubai blocked roads, disrupted transport networks and damaged infrastructure. In Sudan flooding drowned about 40 000 km² of farmland, and caused extensive damage to settlements and infrastructure.
Heatwaves in which temperatures exceeded 50°C hit Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, placing extreme strains upon energy networks.
Human health across the region was affected by heat-related illnesses, waterborne diseases, and the mental health impacts of dealing with extreme weather events. In addition to the extreme heat, parts of Lebanon and Iraq were also impacted by extreme cold.
Extreme weather has contributed to the number of displaced people across the region, with flooding in Yemen reported to have affected almost 211 500 people, and floods in Sudan to have displaced whole communities.
Croplands across the region were hit by extreme weather events in 2024, with about 41% of Sudan's croplands inundated, while in Lebanon flooding destroyed much of the agricultural infrastructure in regions. Across the region, agricultural output was reduced by droughts and heatwaves.
Many countries in the region suffered economic damage due to extreme weather in 2024. Flooding in Algeria caused damage to national infrastructure and transport networks, as well as impacting the lives and activities of ordinary citizens. In Sudan, damage caused to infrastructure and agricultural output placed severe pressure on public finances. Across the region, perceptions of climate-related risks limited foreign direct investment, while the impacts of such events drove up expenditure, to cope with the costs of emergency responses and recovery from disasters.
Extreme weather events have added to many of the complex socioeconomic and environmental challenges facing the Arab Region. Even without these events, sectors such as water resources, agriculture, infrastructure, public health, and tourism are already facing significant challenges. The area has a population of over 436 million people, of whom over 60% are under 30, and is one of the world's most arid regions, with 90% of the land area classified as either arid or hyper-arid. Nineteen of the 22 states that make up the region are considered to be water scarce, and 13 fall below the absolute freshwater scarcity threshold (defined as having 500 m³ of water per person per year available).
It is predicted that the number of days on which the temperature exceeds 35° will increase across the region by 2040, with the greatest increase predicted for Djibouti, with up to 38 additional days, followed by Yemen, up to 36, and Somalia, up to 30.
On the Arabian Peninsula, extreme rainfall events are predicted to become more common, increasing the risks of both floods and droughts. By 2040 the number of days with more than 10 mm of rain could increase by 33% in Kuwait, 31% in Yemen, and 26% in Oman.
The Arab Region is home to 5% of the world's population and 15 of the world's 20 most water-scarce countries. The region only receives about 2% of the world's renewable freshwater supplies. These challengers are compounded by climate change, population growth, and unsustainable water-use practices.
About 80% of surface water in the Arab Region crosses international boundaries, as is about 60% of total water resources. Current predictions suggest that by 2050, two thirds of countries in the region will have less than 200 m³ of water per person per year available. This is predicted to increase the likelihood of interstate water disputes and conflicts.
Currently, about 82% of wastewater goes untreated and unrecycled in the Arab Region, creating a major opportunity to bridge this water gap. Most countries currently have a demand-side water management system, which concentrates on providing water and related services, through regulatory, economic, and technological tools. Agriculture is the largest single consumer of water in the region.
Several potential methods could help to reduce this gap, including seawater desalination, reuse of water from agricultural drainage, treatment and reuse of wastewater, sustainable use of brackish groundwater, improved rainwater harvesting, and cloud seeding.
A number of regional initiatives have been put in place to support these efforts, including the Arab Water Security Strategy (2010–2030), the FAO Water Scarcity Initiative, and the Arab Non-Conventional Water Resources Initiative.
Many countries in the Arab Region are also implementing their own large-scale strategies to cope with water security issues and protect themselves against climate instability.
Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, have all developed ambitious water strategies in response to frequent droughts. In Algeria and Morocco, these include desalination of seawater, dam-building, and the treatment of wastewater for agricultural use. Tunisia, meanwhile, has launched a complete renovation of its water distribution and irrigation network, which includes reusing wastewater, and building 32 dams. This hopes to recover 300 million m³ of water per year by 2050.
Jordan has unveiled a series of water management projects, supported by funding from the European Union, the United States, and Germany, which include water treatment projects, and a system to redistribute water between different parts of the country, most of which will be powered by renewable energy. Saudi Arabia has set up a national authority with planning, regulation, and oversight of water projects. Egypt has initiated projects to prevent the Nile Delta being overwhelmed by rising sealevels, as well as plans to improve agricultural water use.
Many Arab nations have also put into action plans to mitigate the root causes of climate change, notably by shifting towards clean energy and sustainable urban development. These include largescale wind and solar infrastructure in Morocco, low-cost traffic management systems in Egypt, national greening initiatives in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives to scale up clean energy and reduce emissions.
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