Showing posts with label Sulphur Dioxide. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sulphur Dioxide. Show all posts

Friday, 31 January 2020

Assessing air pollution associated with mines in Zambia.

Zambia has been predominantly a mining country and the copper industry has dominated the mining landscape for more than eight decades since the first commercial mine was opened in the early 1900s. To date, the mining sector is still the major foreign exchange earner for the country and the increase in the mining activities in the last decade has seen an increase in the sector's contribution to Gross Domestic Product from around 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2011, employing over 50,000 people. Zambia plays an important role in the global mining industry and the country contains the largest known reserves of copper in Africa, holding 6% of known copper reserves in the world. Zambia's mining sector has continued to register strong performance over the last decade with growth averaging 11% per annum. At present, five companies own holding of about 80% of all copper output and these are Swiss (Glencore Limited, majority owners of Mopani Cooper Mine), Canadian (First Quantum Minerals Limited,  majority owners of Kansanshi Mine, and Barrick Gold owners of Lumwana Mines Plc), Indian (Vedanta, majority owners of Konkola Copper Mine),  and Chinese (NFC Africa). According to the Zambia extractive industries transparency initiative report, covering the 2015 fiscal year, there were more than 30 companies operating in Zambia who provided information on their contribution to the Government of the Republic of Zambia's revenues arising from the extractive industrial activities. Besides, copper, Zambia is endowed with mineral wealth that includes cobalt, gold, nickel, lead, silver, uranium, zinc and numerous precious and semi-precious stones. These minerals are dotted all over the country, although mining activities are predominantly found on the Copperbelt and North-Western Provinces. The copper mine operations on the Copperbelt have had a history of poor environmental management from inception. The poor environmental stewardship has continued irrespective of whether the mining companies were privately or public owned. Over the years, sadly, this environmental mismanagement has compromised the health of the local people, vegetation, animals and has led to the destruction of infrastructure. According to some recent studies, there are three prominent environmental problems arising from the mining operations namely sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and particulate matter emission from smelters, heavy–metal effluents released into water streams and rivers and siltation of local rivers and water bodies.

In a paper published in the journal Heliyon in September 2019, Phenny Mwaanga of the Africa Centre of Excellence in Sustainable Mining, and the Department of Environmental Engineering at Copperbelt University, Mathews Silondwa of the Department of Occupational Safety and Health Services at rhe Zambian Ministry of Labour and Social Services, George Kasali of the Department of Environmental Engineering and Department of Biological Sciences at Copperbelt University, and Paul Banda, also of the Department of Environmental Engineering at Copperbelt University, review the current knowledge of air pollution (sulphur dioxide and particulat matter) associated with the mining industry in Zambia.

GIS map showing location of study area. Mwaanga et al. (2019).

Mine air pollution in Zambia, which is largely due to SO₂ and particulate matter, both fine and ultrafine, has been a topical issue since commercial mining started in the 1920s in the Copperbelt region of Zambia. However, very few studies have been undertaken to chronicle the extent of damage to the environment and harm to human health. The studies showing extent of widespread pollution have been undertaken in the recent past. For instance, in 2000, the Air Pollution Information Network for Africa conducted a study to ascertain the levels of air pollution in Zambia. The results of this study showed that the highest total emissions in Zambia where course particulate emissions of 406.8 kilotonnes per year accounted for 35% of the total emissions that year. This was followed by sulphur dioxide at 359.6 kilotonnes per year, accounting for 31%, while fine particulate matter, ammonia and nitrous oxides were at 252.7 kilotonnes per year, 75.8 kilotonnes per year and 72.8 kilotonnes per year, respectively. An audit report from the Office of the Auditor General on mine operations revealed that SO₂ and particulate matter emissions for most of the 5 large scale mines with smelters and other discharge licences were outside the national set limits by between 155% to 111% higher than the Zambia Environmental Management Agency standard during the 2013 reporting year.

SO₂ is the most critical air pollutant that continues to be emitted from the mining companies. The main source of SO₂ pollution from the Zambian mines is from the roasting and refining of copper bearing sulphide ores, chalcopyrite (CuFeS₂). The first stage in most processes is roasting or smelting the ore in air which oxidizes some of the copper and produces SO₂. The increase in SO₂ emissions has always been observed to increase at the same rate as copper production, primarily due to old smelting processes that are inefficient.

However, in the last two decades, partly as a result of pressure from international non-governmental organisations and banks and the strengthening of the implementation of air pollution legislation by Zambia Environmental Management Agency, serious efforts by mining companies in modernising their smelters has led to significant reduction in SO₂ emissions. For instance, 4 of the 5 major mining companies in Zambia that have a holding of 80% copper output have modern smelters with improved efficiency of SO₂ capture.

Whilst there is some noticeable improvement in the reduction in SO₂ emissions, the control of particulate pollutants from mining environments especially fine and ultrafine particulte matter still remain a major concern. Particulate matter can be classified as coarse (2.5-10 μm aerodynamic diameter), fine (0.1-2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter) and ultrafine ( less than 0.1 μm aerodynamic diameter). Fine and ultrafine particulate matter are produced by combustion that include motor vehicles and power plants, whereas course particulate matter is generated by mechanical processes that produce fugitive dusts from non-combustive sources. All production oriented mining operations such as cutting, breaking, crushing, drilling, grinding or abrasive blasting contribute to fine particulate matter generation, while tailings dump sites are responsible for the emission of coarse particulate matter. Other pollutants such as nitrous oxides and carbon monoxide, including secondary pollutants like ozone are generated from mining related activities. However, the impacts of these pollutants are not as significant on the local communities as that of SO₂ and particulate matter, whose impacts are quite evident on the Copperbelt Province.

Air pollution from the Mufulira Mine. Mwaanga et al. (2019).

Considering the long period of mining on the Copperbelt it is important to look at the historical background to mine air pollution and control efforts. From the beginning of large scale commercial mining in 1928 on the Copperbelt, the mines with smelters received protection from the law against liability as they were indemnified from liability through Smoke Damage (prohibition) Act of 1935. This act declared smelter areas like Nkana, Luanshya and Mufulira Mine areas as Smoke Areas. So during the colonial times under the British rule the mine operators were thus not liable for any damage to human health and property as a result of air pollution from these smelters. Therefore, there was no incentive to control the emissions but rather a licence to pollute.

Upon Zambia getting independence and nationalization of the private mines, this law still remained on the statute books of law. The then government-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines also enjoyed indemnity from liability resulting from air pollution. When Zambia returned to multi-party democracy and the liberization of the economy in the 1990s, the Smoke Damage Act was found to be repugnant and was thus repealed in 1996.

However, during privatization of the mines in the late 1990s-2000 the spirit of the Smoke Damage Act found its way in the development agreements, as the new investors sought indemnity for acquiring and operating polluting mine operations for the so called stability period, in which period the government or its agencies will not take any action to enforce or penalize the new owners of the mines for any pollution during the stability period. During this period the mines environmental management was only regulated within the scope of their approved Environmental Management Plans.

Studies elsewhere have revealed that air pollution can have devastating effects on human health. According to the World Bank, urban air pollution is estimated to cause 250,000 deaths and millions of cases of respiratory illnesses every year. Other studies have shown that toxicological data collected worldwide suggests that human fatalities can arise from short-term exposure to atmospheric SO₂ levels in excess of 1000 μg/m³. Such levels were common in Copperbelt, especially in the mining towns of Kitwe and Mufulira.

The Zambia Environmental Outlook Report 3, indicated that the major source of SO₂ was from industrial processing which contributed 346 700 tonnes per year, accounting for 98% of the total emission and these were mainly from metal processing, mostly copper smelting. Another study measured the concentration of SO₂ from the converters and the smelter in Chambishi and the results showed a concentration of 1402 μg/m³ and 369 μg/m³ SO₂ from the converters and the smelter, respectively. Furthermore, this study also showed that the levels of SO₂ in ambient air, several kilometers from emission sources still exceeded the permissible Zambian annual ambient value of 50 μg/m³ by between 2–3 orders of magnitude.

The Occupational Health and Safety Institute of Zambia is a statutory body in the Ministry of Health, mandated to carry out occupational medical surveillance, occupational hygiene and occupational health and safety research in the Zambian mines and miners with particular emphasis on silicosis, tuberculosis and silico-tuberculosis.

Silicosis has been described as a potentially fatal, irreversible, fibrotic pulmonary disease that develops subsequent to the inhalation of large amounts of silica dust over time. This has a long latency period and develops subsequent to substantial occupational exposures. It clinically presents as an acute, accelerated, or chronic disease.

Few studies have been done on silicosis prevalence in Zambia. A study carried out by the Occupational Health and Safety Institute of Zambia in 1962 undertook the first published descriptive epidemiological study of Zambian copper miners, and reported a low silicosis incidence (less than 0.5%.) However, thiss analysis lacked age stratification of the cohort. By the early 1970s, this weakness was obvious to Occupational Health and Safety Institute scientists who corrected it by reporting age stratified silicosis risk that showed a prevalence of 5% in older in-service miners.

A retrospective study published in 2012 reviewed 476 randomly selected records of Zambian former copper mineworkers who underwent medical examinations at the Occupational Health and Safety Institute for the period of 1st January 2004 to 31st December 2008. The results showed a silicosis prevalence of 8.8%. The silicotics were found to have worked in the mining industry for a median 26 years while the non-silicotics' median service stood at 21 years.

Tuberculosis, though typically not restricted to miners, presents another disease burden in Zambia that has been associated with exposure to respirable silica dust in underground mines. Silica-related tuberculosis has become a menace among silicosis-afflicted mineworkers. An examination of medical records of 2114 Zambian miners for the period 1945 to 2002. It was found that 22.7% had silicosis, 65.4% had tuberculosis, while 11.9% suffered from silico-tuberculosis. Another analysis of data from the Occupational Health and Safety Institute of a sample of copper miners carried out in 2016 revealed that the average incidence rate of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis within the Zambian mines for the period 1994–2014 was 658 per 100 000 persons. It was also found that the Copperbelt Province, a region with the highest concentration of mines in Zambia, had a notification rate of 415 per 100 000 people in 2013, which was more than 10-fold the national tuberculosis notification rate.

Human exposure to air pollutants from mining and ore processing operations can also occur through the food chain. A study published in 2014 found substantial chemical contamination of the surface of leaves of cassava (second staple crop after maize in Zambia) grown near the smelters located in the Copperbelt region of Zambia. The leaves of cassava cultivated in the immediate vicinity of smelters were found covered with tiny particles of dust that contained potentially toxic levels of heavy metals. The presence of these metals in the fallout dust was confirmed when their concentrations in washed and unwashed cassava leaves were compared. Overall, using the highest tolerable weekly ingestion limits established by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives, this study concluded that dietary exposure to metals through the consumption of uncooked cassava leaves and tubers posed a moderate hazard to human health. It was further noted that as the surfaces of leaves were strongly contaminated by metalliferous dust in the polluted areas of the Copperbelt, there was still a potential hazard of ingesting dangerous levels of copper, lead and arsenic if dishes were prepared with poorly washed foliage.

Another lesson that has been learnt from the legacy of mining in Zambia is the fact that human exposure to toxicants can persist for decades, long after the closure of mining operations at any given locality. This situation pertains to Kabwe town, the provincial capital of Zambia's Central Province that has had a long history of open-pit lead and zinc  mining. The mine opened in 1902 and ceased operations in 1994. Apart from lead and zinc, cadmium was produced as a byproduct of processing zinc-containing ores. A study published in 2018 analysed lead and cadmium concentrations in blood, feces and urine of children from three townships near the abandoned lead-zinc mine in Kabwe. They found that faecal lead levels of up to 2252 mg/kg, dry weight, and urine lead levels of up to 2914 mg/litre, which is considered extremely high. An earlier study of the same townships and children in Kabwe, was found that all the 246 sampled children exhibited indications of lead poisoning, with blood lead levels exceeding the 50 μg  per litre, above the ‘level of concern’ set by Centers for Disease Control. The mean blood lead level was 594 μg per litre for all the sampled children, with a range of 54–4278 μg per litre. Children living in townships which were close to and in the direction of the prevailing winds from the abandoned mine dumps recorded the highest concentrations of metals in their bodies. Therefore, polluted dust was the main exposure route for the affected townships. The study described the above-stated levels of lead and cadmium in children as alarming and prescribed immediate medical intervention for the affected children.

The study of lead poisoning in Kabwe has also been extended to terrestrial wildlife, in the form of small wild mammals. Analysis of the lead and other heavy metal concentrations in soil and wild Rat (Rattus sp.) samples collected from around the abandoned lead and zinc mine in Kabwe and Lusaka (the capital city of Zambia). Lusaka served as the control as it was not a mining town. The results revealed that concentrations of lead, zinc, copper, cadmium, and arsenic in Kabwe soils were much higher than those for Lusaka and that metal concentrations dropped off with distance in all directions from the abandoned mine.

Of particular interest was the finding that both liver and kidney from Rats in Kabwe had significantly higher lead concentrations than those from Lusaka, indicating that polluted soil caused metal accumulation in wild Rats.

It is also evident that the levels of lead in Kabwe Rats exceeded the histopathological threshold of 2.5 mg per kg dry weight. Additionally; a significant negative correlation between body weight and renal lead was found, suggesting that wild Rats from Kabwe have been chronically exposed to lead, and that lead might have affected growth of these Rats. A reduction in body weight is a known typical toxic effect of lead in Rats.

The damage due to air pollution on materials is of serious concern as it affects the service life of buildings and hence the economy of the affected community. In Zambia, due to the nature of the mined copper ore, chalcopyrite, the predominant air pollutants include SO₂ and particulate matter. These anthropogenic pollutants can cause building degradation through soiling, corrosion and erosion. Although the effects of air pollution on materials may easily be seen in terms of discoloration, material loss and soiling, the structural failing and economic losses may not always be visible to everyone.

Though sulphur dioxide can fall both as wet and dry deposition, it frequently falls as dry deposition even up to 30 km of its source. Wet deposition of acids occurs when the pollutants are released into the atmosphere and react with water vapor present in clouds to form dilute acids. Besides sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and carbon dioxide can also cause damage to the materials and infrastructure.

In Copperbelt Province, sulphur dioxide emissions are chiefly responsible for the acid rain which deteriorates the houses of inhabitants in mining communities. For instance, the Kankoyo Township near the Mufulira Mine is one of the classic examples were paint on houses have been peeling off and the corrugated iron roofs are corroded by the sulphur acidity.

Roofs and paints corroded by sulphur acidity in Kankoyo. Mwaanga et al. (2019).

It was not possible to find scientific literature that directly linked air pollution in Kankoyo township of Mufulira to acid rain and the resultant damages to housing infrastructure. However, the potential or probability for acid rain occurrence could be gleaned from the historical atmospheric concentrations of sulphur dioxide recorded in the area.

Four SO₂ monitoring stations were installed by the mining company at different clinics of the residential areas of Mufulira town. This showed that the SO₂ concentrations were very high at Clinics 3 and 5, representing the townships of Kantanshi and Kankoyo respectively, which were located in the vicinity of the smelter as well as in the downwind direction of the smelter. On the other hand, the other clinics which were located further away, and either upwind of the plant (Clinic 8 in a low-density neighbourhood of Mufulira town) or not directly in the path of the dominant winds (Clinic 7 of Butondo township) recorded relatively reduced levels of SO₂.

The data further show that the SO₂ levels at Clinics 3 and 5 exceeded the annual guidelines significantly and even exceeded the daily guideline value for most of the years. Clinic 7 is located relatively far away downwind of the smelter but its SO₂ levels often exceeded the annual guideline value. It is only at Clinic 8, on the upwind side of the smelter, where the SO₂ levels were below the guideline values.

Research elsewhere has shown that ambient air pollutants can adversely impact the physiological and biochemical parameters of plants, which can lead to a reduction in the overall growth and development of some plants species. Usually the greatest effects occurs when plants are exposed to mixtures of pollutants, whose effects can even manifest at lower threshold levels at which effects for each individual pollutant cannot be detected. Thus in case of the copper mine air pollution effects, other minor pollutants such as oxides of nitrogen, including the secondary pollutant like ozone become significant as they can contribute to poor plant growth.

The particulate matter effects on the growth and development aspects of plants are dependent on the physical and chemical nature of the particulate matter. Besides, the presence of heavy metals, the pH of particulate matter can adversely affect soils making plant growth impossible.

The SO₂ emitted in the air may form acid rain especially in the rain season and this contributes to the deterioration of the soils which become unfit for farming and inhibit growth of vegetation. The effect of mine air pollution is clearly visible in the vegetation of some townships near the mine areas. For instance, the Kankoyo area in Mufulira has open spaces without vegetation and only certain shrubs and trees, such as Cactuses, Mango and Avocado are able to grow. Thus some areas of Mufulira are considered as wasteland.

Only plants resistant to air pollution are able to grow in some Mufulira townships. Mwaanga et al. (2019).

The direct cause and effect relationship between air pollution and failure of the soils in Kankoyo to support plant life, as witnessed by the residents of Kankoyo and the surrounding townships in Mufulira town, has yet to be scientifically established. However, a study published in 2014 revealed that the soils in Kankoyo Township and other surrounding areas which were located downwind of the Mufulira smelter had undergone acidification. Moreover, these soils recorded excessive amounts of metals, in the ranges of 37–8980 mg per kilogram of copper, 3–46 mg per kilogram of cobalt, up to 42 mg per kilogram of lead, and 16–83 mg per kilogram of zinc; with the lowest values corresponding to topsoil from the reference sites located at 24 km upwind from the smelter. When these soils were tested for biotoxicity, it was found that reproduction of the Worm Enchytraeus crypticus was fully inhibited in the soils with the highest copper concentration of 8980 mg per kilogram. Overall, the number of reproduced Enchytraeid Worms dropped with higher copper and cobalt concentrations. No reproduction was possible in soils with copper levels of above 5000 mg per kilogram. Additionally, the number of reproduced Enchytraeid Worms also dropped with higher sulphur levels in these soils.

Enchytraeid Worms are critical soil biome components that contribute to organic matter decomposition by fragmenting organic debris, changing its properties and structure, and regulating soil microbial processes that are vital for normal plant growth. They are, therefore, used as indicators to assess the biotoxicity or ecological health of contaminated soils.

A study that examined the extent of damage of mine air pollution to vegetation in Mufulira and noted that SO₂ emissions from the mines caused physical damages such as necrotic spot, yellowing of leaves, defoliation and die-back on trees which were closer to the emission source.

Effects of air pollution on plant species. Mwaanga et al. (2019).

Mwaanga et al.'s review has revealed the possibility of mine-derived air pollution in Zambia. The few studies that are available are not contemporary, but they have revealed the occupational and environmental effects of airborne hazard exposures associated with mining and ore-processing operations in Zambia.

In the mining workplaces, exposure to PM, in the form of silica dust, has created a pool of former and in-service silicosis-afflicted mineworkers. However, the actual prevalence or incidence rates for silicosis amongst miners are not exactly known as they change from one study to another. The reported rates are mainly based on restricted sample sizes, making it difficult to derive population-based rates. Moreover, the reported rates could substantially underestimate total silicosis cases in Zambia. This is because the Occupational Health and Safety Institute's radiological diagnosis procedures of occupational respiratory diseases have not been updated in the last 30 years and the institute reports silicosis morbidity as annual counts of silicosis cases instead of succinct silicosis parameters such as prevalence or incidence. The Occupational Health and Safety Institute has also a limitation of poor follow-up of retired miners who are usually repatriated to their distant places of origin around Zambia. These miners usually undergo socio-economic destitution due to the debilitating effects of silicosis, for which, currently, there is no cure or effective treatment available. Tuberculosis has also emerged among Zambian miners as an additional occupational disease. Tuberculosis being an airborne disease entails that enclosed areas such as mining sites with poor ventilation create favorable environments for tuberculosis transmission. The higher tuberculosis incidence rates in the mines have been attributed to higher rates of exposure to silica dust and silicosis (silicosis increases risk of tuberculosis by up to three times), the HIV/AIDS epidemic (HIV/AIDS increases risk of tuberculosis by up to ten times) and the environmental factors associated with the mines.

Mwaanga et al.'s review also shows that apart from occupational exposures, the mining industry in Zambia has subjected residents, fauna and flora of surrounding communities to environmental exposures of air-borne pollutants. The main exposure hazards are SO₂ and metal-laden particulate matter emanating from smelter emissions and wind-blown dust from both operating and abandoned tailings and mining-waste dumps.

The ambient air SO₂ and particulate matter concentrations reported in the review were in most cases above the international and Zambian permissible guideline limits. The effects of SO₂ on humans are well documented. SO₂ in high concentration with or without exercise is a respiratory irritant, provoking airflow limitation. In some studies SO₂, sulfates and acid aerosols have been associated with increased emergency visits and hospitalizations for asthma. Besides SO₂, particulate matter is another environmental issue of great concern to both the miners and the residents living near the mine sites. It has been established that elevated concentrations of particulate matter induces protective but injurious cellular response, and can cause oxidative stress in Humans. The other health impacts on particulate matter include procoagulant activity by ultrafine particles after access to the systemic circulation and the suppression of the normal defense mechanisms e.g. suppression of the alveolar macrophage functions. Exposure to ambient air pollution particulates has been associated with increased cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality, particular in individuals with pre-existing diseases.

Both in vivo and in vitro studies of the health effects of ambient particulate matter have identified the generation of oxidative stress as one of the major mechanism by which air pollution particles exerts adverse biological effects. Among particles of different sizes, it has also been established that ultrafine particles are potentially the most dangerous due to their small size, large surface area, deep penetration and ability to be retained in lungs and content of redox – cycling organic chemicals.

Short term exposure to air pollutants is directly linked to increased morbidity, and an increase in particulate matter level by 10 μg/m³ is associated with 1.27%, 1.45% and 2.00% increase in hospital admissions for heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia respectively.

In the mining towns of the Copperbelt Province, miners and residents have endlessly been exposed to elevated concentrations of SO₂ and particulate matter. residents of mining towns, particularly Mufulira, complain of an array of diseases including pulmonary tuberculosis and other respiratory complications associated with mine air pollution. Whilst these complaints were likely to be a reflection of what people have endured in these mining towns for a long time, the absence of research based evidence makes it difficult for government to take any remedial action.

When SO₂ is released into the atmosphere, it can react photochemically or catalytically with other pollutants to form sulphur trioxide (SO₃), sulphuric acid (H₂SO₄) and various sulphuric acid salts which represent the main constituents of acid precipitation, also known as acid rain. Therefore, the potential or propensity for acid rain occurrence in Mufulira town of the Copperbelt Province is quite high and cannot be ruled out, despite the absence of direct research based scientific evidence.

Acid rain speeds up the natural chemical weathering and corrosion of exposed material in a variety of ways like ferrous metals are attacked by SO₂ and rust more quickly; steel buildings, rail tracks and other structures built of iron can be adversely affected by air pollution with extensive economic losses. The corrosion rate has been shown to be about two to ten times higher in polluted urban and industrial air in India especially in the presence of high concentration of SO₂ than the countryside.

Despite the visible effects of mine air pollution on infrastructure in the Copperbelt Province, there has not been any research to quantify the quantitative silica content in dust to which miners are exposed. Furthermore, even in cases where the total dust to which miners were exposed exceeded the statutory Zambian limit of 1.75 mg/m³, little or no practical measures were taken, except providing the affected miners with 'dust masks' whose pore size could have no bearing to the dust characteristics, as no studies have ever been conducted to ascertain the physico-chemical characteristics of the mine particulate matter (dust).

In the last decade, efforts have been made by the mining companies, albeit partly due to pressure from international non-governmental organisationss and banks and partly due to the strengthening of implementation of regulation by the Zambia Environmental Management Agency, to minimize the emission of SO₂ and particulate matter from the copper smelters and converters.

For instance in 2009 the Nkana Copper Smelter which has been a source of SO₂ pollution for over six decades was closed and this has improved the quality of air in Kitwe, despite the damage caused to property and vegetation still remain unmitigated. Interviews with residents of this area bear testimony to the fact that respiratory related complaints have drastically reduced. Unfortunately, records from two hospitals, Wusakile and Sino-Zam, within the proximity of the Nkana Smelter, which would have availed documentary evidence to the nature of frequent cases related to air pollution, are not accessible.

Similarly, the Mufulira Copper Smelter which is well known for polluting the environment especially the Kankoyo Township where some areas have been declared a wasteland, has undergone some modernization and the SO₂ emissions have been reduced. The smelter upgrade project that started in 2005 was completed in 2016. In Chingola, the Nchanga Smelter is a modern facility with little known episodes of SO₂ pollution. According to the design parameters, it was expected to capture about 95% of the SO₂ and feed to the modern and fully fledged sulphuric acid plant.

Finally, both the Kansanshi Mine and the Chambishi Copper Smelters in Solwezi and Chambishi, respectively, are equally new and as such low levels of SO₂ emissions are expected. Despite the installation of new and modern smelters, it is only the stringent monitoring of SO₂ emissions at these facilities that will help avoid the age long legacy that has been endemic in the Zambian mines.

Based on the reviewed literature and the current state of mine air pollution in Zambia, Mwaanga et al. recomend further research in the follwing areas:

Critical studies on comprehensive characterization of particulate matter from the mine environments are required, as these will help in understanding the possible long and short term adverse health and ecological effects particulate matter has on the communities in the mining areas. In Mufulira and other affected regions, there is need for studies on the effects of miningderived acid rain, dust deposition on leaves and soil heavy metal contamination on plant/crop growth and related abiotic and biotic processes in the soil. These ecological impact assessments must include the identification of resistant species that may have the potential for bioremediation of metal-contaminated soils or sites.

Though silicosis is an occupational health issue in the Zambian miners, there is need for research to understand its influence on pulmonary tuberculosis and establish the link between silicosis, Tuberculosis cases and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS among Zambian miners. Surveillance/monitoring and epidemiological studies covering retired and inservice miners are required for determining the actual prevalence rates of mining-related illnesses and diseases in Zambia and the appropriate interventions for control, prevention and compensation.

The current occupational exposure limits in Zambia do not take into account the silica content in the ore dust. This situation suggest that many miners maybe exposed to levels of total respirable dust and
respirable crystalline silica that are higher than Occupational Safety and Health Administration Personal Exposure Limit for respirable dust containing crystalline silica. There is need for research to establish the relationship between silica exposure and silicosis occurrence in miners. In this regard, it is imperative that national institutions, mandated to regulate, monitor and screen miners for silica exposure and silicosis prevalence, acquire contemporary state of the art equipment and attain international certification for both personnel and laboratories. This responsibility should be shared with mining firms in Zambia. Data from these monitoring and screening activities should be analysed to set appropriate occupational personal exposure limits and supporting policies and legal instruments.

Health risk assessments and epidemiological studies in mining towns are required to determine the mining-related environmental air pollution exposure levels, sources, routes and risk factors, so that interventions could be developed to protect human and ecosystem health in the affected communities. In the mining-based air-borne hazard hotspots of Kabwe and Mufulira towns, it is necessary to conduct prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort studies to establish the short- and long-term health impacts and the socioeconomic implications of environmental exposure to mining-related air pollution.

Mining companies and the mandated regulatory institutions must institute intervention research to determine the efficiency and efficacy of air-borne hazard control technologies and other measures employed in protecting the health of miners.

Research on the effects of current and past air pollution on agricultural productivity and costs in affected areas of the mining towns requires attention.

Baseline scientific investigation using Remote Sensing and GIS Tools to confirm the absence of environmental degradation (land cover and land use changes) and human health issues prior to mining activities in Zambia.

Despite the paucity of data on the extent of the impacts of mine air pollution in Zambia, its effects are visible particularly on vegetation and infrastructure. In some towns of the Copperbelt, for instance, Mufulira, the impact there is so severe that an area like Kankoyo Township has been declared a 'wasteland'. In terms of human health, insufficient studies have been conducted to corroborate the numerous complaints from residents in the mining towns about respiratory complications associated with air pollution. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of the extent of adverse impacts of mine air pollution on human health and the economic costs, future research involving interdisciplinary research groups is recommended.

Whilst much investment has been made by mining companies towards reducing SO₂ emissions, vigilance on the part of the  Zambia Environmental Management Agency is critical. The reviewed literature has shown that the current state of environmental degradation arising from mine air pollution has its genesis from the Smoke Damage Act of 1935. Furthermore, it has also been observed that the academic and research institutions in Zambia have not provided leadership in the area of research and potential areas of research have been highlighted. Nevertheless, based on this review it can be concluded that there is a strong link between human health, animal health, and environmental degradation and mine air pollution in Zambia.

See also...

https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2020/01/studying-land-cover-transformation-in.htmlhttps://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2019/12/a-hunger-for-hongmu-environmental.html
https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2019/12/collapse-at-south-african-gold-mine.htmlhttps://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2019/09/estimating-hazard-presented-by-radon.html
https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2019/09/human-rights-watch-reports-on-lead.htmlhttps://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2019/02/flood-at-zimbabwe-gold-mine-kills-at.html
Follow Sciency Thoughts on Facebook.

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Sulphur dioxide plumes in the atmosphere of Venus.

Atmospheric processes on Venus are driven by the interaction of water and sulphur dioxide. There molecules combine to form a sulphuric acid cloud layer, which covers the surface of the planet. These clouds are thought to produce sulphuric acid rain which falls towards the surface, but usually evaporates due to the planet’s heat before reaching the ground, disassociating into water and sulphur dioxide again as it does so. Below the cloud layer water and sulphur dioxide are present in the atmosphere at rates of about 30 and 130 parts per million respectively, while above the cloud layer their presence drops to about 1-3 parts per million for water, and 10-1000 parts per billion for sulphur dioxide.

The atmosphere of Venus has been monitored by a series of spacecraft, including Pioneer Venus, Venera, Venus Express, and Akatsuki, which have given us a good general understanding of the composition of the Venusian atmosphere, though their proximity to the planet has hampered the ability of these probes to study the whole disk of Venus, preventing the study of wider scale atmospheric behaviour. To this end the Texas Echelon Cross-Echelle Spectrograph (TEXES) at the NASA InfraRed telescope Facility at Mauna Kea Observatory has been used to monitor the behaviour of sulphur dioxide and water on Venus since January 2012. These studies have shown that the distribution of water in the upper atmosphere of Venus tends to be even, and remains more-or-less constant, while sulphur dioxide levels vary a great deal with what appear to be plumes of the gas appearing and disappearing over the space of a few hours.

In a paper published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics on 7 March 2019, Therese Encrenaz of the Observatoire de Paris at Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, Thomas Greathouse of the Southwest Research Institute, Emmanuel Marcq of the Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales, Hideo Sagawa of Kyoto Sangyo University, Thomas Widemann, Bruno Bézard, and Thierry Fouchet, also of the Observatoire de Paris at Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, Franck Lefèvre, also of the Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales, Sébastien Lebonnois of the Ecole Polytechnique and the University Paris Saclay, Sushil Atreya of the Planetary Science Laboratory at the University of Michigan, Yeon Joo Lee of the University of Tokyo, Rohini Giles of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Shigeto Watanabe of Hokkaido Information University, describe the results of a long term study of the movement of sulphur dioxide within the atmosphere of Venus, made using the Texas Echelon Cross-Echelle Spectrograph at the NASA InfraRed telescope Facility at Mauna Kea Observatory between January 2016 and September 2018.

Geometrical configurations of the disk of Venus during the six TEXES runs of 2016, 2017, and 2018. The terminator is indicated with a black line and the subsolar point with a black dot. The January 2016 and July 2017 runs correspond to the morning terminator; the four other runs correspond to the evening terminator. Encrenaz et al. (2019).

As had previously been noted, Encrenaz et al. found that sulphur dioxide plumes appeared and disappeared over the course of a few hours. However, not all the plumes behaved in the same way, with some plumes being very localised, with sulphur dioxide levels reaching as much as four times as high as in the rest of the atmosphere at the same altitude over a very narrow area, while others were more diffuse, occurring over a wide longitudinal (east-west) range. Plumes typically reached maximum intensity within two hours, then dissipated over the course of another two hours, with the sulphur dioxide dispersing in the same direction as the movement of the clouds.

Almost all the plumes appeared close to the equator, at latitudes of between 30° north and 30° south, although it would have been hard to detect plumes close to the poles, so the presence of polar plumes cannot be ruled out. Two regions within this equatorial zone produced significantly less plumes; one of these corresponds to longitudes between 100 and150 east (which is roughly the longitudinal extent of the Aphrodite Terra highland region) and the other centres on a longitude of about 300 east.

Maps of the line depth ratio of a weak sulphur dioxide multiplet (around 1345.1 cm⁻¹) to the CO2 transition at 1345.22 cm⁻¹. The subsolar point is shown as a white dot. The scale is not the same for the six maps; the maximum sulphur dioxide abundance is observed in July 2018. Encrenaz et al. (2019).

Plumes were also significantly less likely at noon local time anywhere on the planet, i.e. when the Sun is directly overhead. Encrenaz et al. speculate that this might be caused by photochemical processes breaking down the sulphur dioxide, or solar energy disrupting convection currents within the cloud layer.

Finally, Encrenaz et al. compared the data from the TEXES instrument to that from the UV Imager on the Akatsuki spacecraft and the SPICAV UV spectrometer on the Venus Express spacecraft, finding that both instruments produced corelating data, with a particularly good match between data from TEXES and that from Akatsuki.


(Left panel) UV albedo map derived from the Akatsuki UV Imager data recorded on 21 January 2017, at 01.46 GMT. Dashed lines represent the equator and the evening terminator. (Right panel) TEXES map of the sulphur dioxide volume mixing ratio at the cloud top, inferred from the sulphur dioxide /carbon dioxide line depth ratio at 7.4 μm on 21 January 2017, at 03.43–04.18 GMT. Encrenaz et al. (2019).

See also...

https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2018/11/asteroid-2002-ve68-passes-earth.htmlhttps://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2016/08/could-there-have-been-life-on-ancient.html
https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-orbit-of-asteroid-2013-nd15.htmlhttps://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2014/09/venus-at-perihelion.html
https://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2012/06/nasas-solar-dynamic-observatory.html
Follow Sciency Thoughts on Facebook.

Saturday, 10 October 2015

Sulphur Dioxide emissions from the 2014-15 Holuhraun Lava Field Eruption.

In mid-August 2014 seismic monitoring stations in Iceland began to record small Earth-tremors beneath the Bárðarbunga Volcano, which rises through the Vatnajökull Glacier in northern Iceland, Such seismic events are considered highly significant by volcanonolgists as they are often caused by magma moving into chambers beneath the volcano, and can therefore be an indicator of forthcoming eruptions. These tremors grew in size and frequency throughout the month, until on 31 August lava began to erupt from vents at the Holuhraun Lava Field (part of the Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn Volcanic Complex) to the north of the Vatnajökull Glacier. This eruption continued through September 2015, producing a continuous eruption along a 1.5 km fissure with fountains of lava reaching 100 m in height. During the second half of the month the eruptive activity declined and became restricted to four craters along the fissure. Lava continued to be erupted from these craters at a declining rate until the end of February 2015. This eruption produced about 1.5 km3 of lava covering an area of about 85 km2. This is the third recorded eruption at the Holuhraun Lava Field (previous eruptions having occurred in 1797 and 1862–1864), and the first flood lava eruption in Iceland since the Laki eruption of 1783-84.




Eruptions on the Holuhraun Lava Field in September 2014. Eggert Norðdahl/Volcano Café.



In a paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on 21 August 2015, a team of scientists led by Anja Schmidt of the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds describe the results of a study of sulphur dioxide emissions during the 2014-15 Holuhraun Lava Field eruption, and discuss the implications of this for future policy making in Europe.



Remote sensing of the volcanic emissions, both from ground stations and from satellites, detected Sulphur Dioxide plumes rising as high as 3 km above the visible eruption, and suggest that an average of 35 kilotons being emitted per day throughout the eruptive episode, with emissions in September 2014 reaching as high as 120 kilotons per day. This implies that throughout the eruptive episode the Holuhruan Lava Field was emitting more sulphur dioxide than the total produced by all 28 members European Environmental Agency from all sources including shipping during the entire of 2010. It also significantly outperformed other volcanoes noted for their high long term sulphur dioxide emissions, such as Kilauea in Hawaii (which emits about 2-8 kilotons of sulphur dioxide per day on average) and Mount Etna in Italy (which emits an average of 3.5 kilotons of sulphur dioxide per day). This represents the largest output of sulphur dioxide by a single volcano since the 2000-2003 Miyake-jima eruption in Japan, which was in turn thought to have been the largest emitter of sulphur dioxide since the Laki eruption of 1783-84, which caused a significant period of climatic stress and cooling in Europe in the 1780s.



Schmidt et al. attempted to model the progress of emissions from Holuhraun towards Europe in September 2014 using the NAME computer modelling system, which has previously been used by the London Volcanic Ash AdvisoryCentre to model emissions from the 2008 Kasatochi eruption, the 2009 Sarychev eruption and the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. They used data from air quality measuring stations operated by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency, the Department for Environment, Foodand Rural Affairs, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the Netherlands NationalInstitute for Public Health and the Environment to determine sulphur dioxide in levels in Ireland, the UK, Finland and the Netherlands during this period.



This simulation suggested that sulphur dioxide from Holuhraun reached areas 3000 miles from the eruption itself, and heights of 4500 m in the atmosphere. The emissions were driven eastwards by a series of anticyclones (expand); in early September an anticyclone moving eastwards from the UK to Scandinavia initially produced northerly winds (i.e. winds from the north) which propelled sulphur dioxide towards Ireland, then westerly winds that drove emissions from Iceland towards northern Finland, later in the month two anticyclones over the North Atlantic and the UK coalesced, forming a ridge of high pressure over the UK which drove emissions through the UK and into the Netherlands.



Schmidt et al. compared these simulation results to data obtained by the OzoneMonitoring Instrument on the Aurora satellite and the InfraredAtmospheric Sounding Interferometer instruments on the MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellites, finding a close comparison between the calculated position of Sulphur Dioxide emissions and the observed positions, with discrepancies occurring on only two days (5 and 21 September).





Comparison of satellite-retrieved and satellite-simulated SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) for 5–6 and 20–21 September 2014. For the comparison of the model simulations to the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) the model output was sampled at OMI overpasses and the column operator was applied, and for the comparison to the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) the model was sampled at IASI overpasses between 08:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC. Both the OMI and IASI data have been gridded onto the same regular 0.5° by 0.5° longitude-latitude grid as the model simulations. Schmidt et al (2015).



This gave Schmidt et al. the confidence to calculate levels of Sulphur Dioxide based upon the model and satellite observations, coming up with an average figure of 20-60 kilotons per day per day during 6-22 September 2014, rising to 60-120 kilotons per day for the rest of the month. This puts peak emissions slightly higher than twice the peak emissions recorded from the Miyake-jima eruption (54 kilotons per day during December 2000), and suggests that over the course of the eruption Holuhruan may have erupted a total of 11 teragrams of sulphur dioxide (convert to something more sensible), less than the 18 teragrams erupted over the three year period of the Miyake-jima eruption, but more than twice as much as emitted by Miyake-jima during the first six months of that eruption.



The highest concentration of Sulphur Dioxide recorded in Europe during the Holuhruan eruption occurred at Ennis in the Republic of Ireland on 4-8 September 2014, with concentrations reaching a high of ~524 μg/m3 between 5.00 and 6.00 pm on 6 September. This is the first time that sulphur dioxide levels in excess of 400 μg/m3 have been recorded in Europe since 1990, following the introduction of stringent Europe-wide restrictions on industrial emissions in the 1980s. The second highest levels recorded were in Scotland, where average levels of ~320 μg/m3 were recorded on 20-25 September. The highest recorded levels in Finland occurred at Sammaltunturi during the night of 7–8 September, when average sulphur dioxide levels of ~180 μg/m3 were recorded. England and the Netherlands both recorded their highest sulphur dioxide levels on 22 September 2014, with ~96 μg/m3 recorded in England and ~82 μg/m3 recorded in the Netherlands.



Sulphur dioxide pollution is known to cause a wide range of health problems, and the World Health Organisation recommends that exposure to levels higher than 500 μg/m3 be regarded as hazardous, while the Clean Air for Europe Directive mandates that if sulphur dioxide levels remain above 500 μg/m3 for more than three hours then a public health warning must be issued. During the 2014-15 Holuhruan eruption recorded sulphur dioxide levels exceeded 500 μg/m3 only once and for only one our at a single monitoring station (Ennis), but concentrations exceeding 350 μg/m3 were recorded for over 100 hours in total at the same station during the course of the eruption, the highest sustained sulphur dioxide concentration recorded in Europe since records began. By contrast on Iceland the Höfn monitoring station, which is only about 100 km from the Holuhruan Lava Field, the highest concentration recorded was 3000 μg/m3, but concentrations exceeding 350 μg/m3 were recorded for only 124 hours in total.



In the United Kingdom sulphur dioxide levels in excess of 266 μg/m3 are considered 'moderate pollution' by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. This level was not exceeded at any UK monitoring station during the Holuhruan eruption, but Schmidt et al.'s computer model suggests that this level was exceeded off the northern coast of Scotland for about eleven consecutive hours.



Sulphur dioxide monitoring in Europe began in the 1980s in response to high levels of the gas being produced by industry. Since this time tighter environmental regulations have almost eliminated this source of pollution, and many governments are considering cutting back on monitoring. However the Holuhruan Lava Field eruption has shown that such stations can be useful in monitoring naturally occurring sulphur dioxide emissions, which present the same hazard to health, and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency is now planning to extend sulphur dioxide monitoring in Scotland as a result of this event. Schmidt et al. also recommend that European agencies look to expand satellite monitoring of such emissions, which would allow the better prediction of the movements of clouds of sulphur dioxide, allowing local authorities to plan for pollution events before they occur.



See also


http://sciencythoughts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/magnitude-54-earthquake-beneath.html Magnitude 5.4 Earthquake beneath the Vatnajökull Glacier in Iceland.                      The Icelandic Met Office, which also monitors seismic activity, recorded a Magnitude 5.4 Earthquake at a depth of 4.1 KM...
The Icelandic Met Office recorded a Magnitude 5.4 Earthquake at a depth of 3.9 km beneath the Vatnajökull Glacier slightly before 7.10 am local time (which is...

Lava began to erupt from a fissure in the Holuhraun lava field, no the north of the Vatnajökull Glacier in central Iceland, late in the evening of Thursday 28 August, and has continued to do so for the next three days. The lava field lies to the northeast of  Bárðarbunga, a volcano...
 
 

Follow Sciency Thoughts on Facebook.


Sunday, 13 November 2011

Eruptions on Mount Nyamuragira in the Virunga National Park, November 2011.

On the evening of 6 November 2011 a fissure opened on the northern flank of Mount Nyamuragira, from which a lava fountain emerged and lava spread out over a wide area. Nyamuragira is in the Virunga National Park in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, close to the Rwandan border, and the glow from the volcano was clearly visible that night from the city of Goma, across the border in Rwanda.

Footage of the November 2011 eruption, taken from the Virunga National Park offices.

Eruptions of this sort are not unusual on Mount Nyamuragira, which has a reputation for being Africa's most active volcano. Nyamuragira is a shield volcano, with a broad shallow dome structure made up layers of lava, unlike the more famous stratovolcanoes which have a cone shape, made up of layers of ash and lava. Eruptions from Nyamuragira are very frequent, the last being in January 2010, when a fissure opened on the southeast flank of the volcano. Eruptions from fissures on the flanks of Nyamuragira are at least as common as those from the (small) caldera at the summit. Small cones are often formed by these fissure eruptions, but they are seldom long lived.

The lava produced by Mount Nyamuragira is a low silicone basalt. This tends to have a very low viscosity, i.e. it flows very freely, rapidly covering a wide area. Because of this few people choose to live near the mountain, so it is seldom a threat to human life, though it has in the past caused problems for vulnerable wildlife populations, such as the human-familiarized chimpanzees and gorillas of Virungu National Park.

The location of Nyamuragira, and the extent of it's lava fields.

Basalts are more usually associated with volcanoes on oceanic rifts that with continental volcanicity. The presence of basaltic volcanoes in the African interior is taken as evidence that the continent is slowly splitting apart along it's great rift valleys (not on any timescale likely to threaten human life).

Nyamuragira lies on the Eastern Branch of the East African Rift; most volcanoes in this area produce more typical siliclastic lavas, but there are several other basaltic volcanoes in the area, such as the nearby Mount Nyiragongo (Africa's second most active volcano - between them the two volcanoes account for 40% of all volcanic activity on the continent), the less active Visoke, which last erupted in 1957, and the inactive Karasimbi, Mikeno and Muhavura volcanoes.

The Western Branch of the Rift Valley also has basaltic volcanoes, most notably Ol Doinyo Lengi, to the south of Lake Natron in Tazania, the worlds only active carbonitic volcano (i.e a volcano that produces lavas containing carbonate compounds), and the nearby extinct, but dramatic, Mount Shombole.

The plume underlying the East African Rift, which appears to be slowly pushing the continent apart.

There are also basaltic volcanoes along the 'Cameroon Line' in West-Central Africa, including Mount Cameroon and the volcanoes of the Oku Volcanic Field. The Cameroon Line extends under the Atlantic Ocean, forming the volcanoes of Sao Tome, Principe, Annobon and Fernando Poo islands.

Map showing the distribution of volcanoes in Africa and the surrounding area.

Eruptions from Mount Nyamuragira also tend to be unusually rich in Sulphur Dioxide (SO₂), with the volcano producing a large proportion of all the volcanic SO₂ that enters our atmosphere. To give this a sense of proportion, about 75% of all the SO₂ entering our atmosphere originates from the burning of fossil fuels. The effects of SO₂ in the atmosphere are a little complicated. Firstly it is poisonous, though this is only a danger close to the source where it is concentrated. Since most people avoid going close to active volcanoes, this usually only presents a hazard to professional volcanologists. Secondly it mixes with water to form sulphuric acid, i.e. acid rain, which can be a major problem downwind of volcanic eruptions and large industrial centers, with the rain causing severe damage to vegetation and aquatic life. Thirdly SO₂ droplets act as coolant. Since both volcanic and industrial SO₂ is usually produced alongside larger quantities of Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), which is a greenhouse gas, this is usually a negligible effect, but cooler weather can be produced downwind of major eruptions, as the CO₂ disperses more rapidly than the SO₂.

Satellite image of the plume emerging from Mount Nyamuragira, taken on 7 November 2011 by the NASA Earth Observatory.

See also Eruptions on Mount Ebro, Ongoing volcanic activity on El Hierro, Snowfall in Namibia and Volcanoes on Sciency Thoughts YouTube.

Follow Sciency Thoughts on Facebook.

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

The dangers of a modern Laki style eruption in Iceland.

Laki, or Lakigígar, is a volcano in southern Iceland, it is a part of the Grímsvötn Volcanic Complex, which has been in the news this year. In June 1773 Laki erupted, not from its summit, but from a number of fissures in its side. These fissures produced a lava fountain that reached 1400 m into the air, and a column of ash and gasses ten times as high. This eruption persisted for eight months, during which time it is thought to have produced 14 km³ on lava, and clouds of ash and gas that reached around the globe, with devastating effects. The gasses produced by Laki were unusually rich in sulphur dioxide (SO₂), which is a lethal poison, and lead to many thousands of deaths in Iceland in Europe. In total Laki is thought to have killed around 6 million people worldwide, through a combination of sulphur dioxide poisoning, the climatic effects of the ash and aerosols and famine resulting from both, and to have contributed to the famine that triggered the French Revolution.

The French Revolution - an unusual side effect of a volcanic eruption. Image by Eugene Delacroix.

As a one-off event this would be historically interesting, if a little sad, but Laki was not a one-off event. Iceland is located on a divergent margin, where two of the Earth's larger tectonic plates (North America and Eurasia) are drawing apart and new crust is being formed. This makes it an extremely volcanically active environment, with eruptions, at least on a minor scale, happening more-or-less constantly. In the past two years there have been two eruptions large enough to cause major disruption to air-traffic in Europe - Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn. Seen in this context it is not surprising to discover that there have been other Laki-type eruptions - four in the last 1150 years. This makes the likely-hood of another Laki-type eruption occurring in the foreseeable future worth worrying about; it is clearly a far more likely hazard than (for example) the danger of a major meteor strike, a scenario which has received considerable investigation in recent years.

The 20 September edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (vol. 108, no. 38), contains a paper by a team lead by Anja Schmidt of the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds, in which they model the effects of a possible Laki-type eruption on modern day Europe.

Schmidt et al. begin by observing that the modern world is very different from the world of the late eighteenth century. Our scientific understanding of our environment and medical skills are far in advance of theirs, and we have the ability to respond to large scale problems in ways that simply not available then. Our populations are on the whole healthier than they were two centuries ago, but they are also older, making them vulnerable in different ways, and far larger, so that a lower fatality rate may well result in more deaths.

The country worst effected by the 1783-4 eruption was Iceland itself, with clouds of volcanic haze, rich in sulphur dioxide, covering much of the country, leading to the deaths of around 10 000 people, between 20 and 25% of the population. In addition between 50 and 75% of the island's livestock is thought to have perished. At the time nobody knew what sulphur dioxide was, so they were able to do little to respond to the problem. In modern Iceland the activities of all volcanoes are carefully monitored by the Icelandic Met Office, which also pays careful attention to air pollution arising from these activities. This should enable the country to take prompt action if confronted by a major volcanic haze problem, evacuating people where necessary and providing some protection to those who cannot be evacuated, though one on the scale of the 1783 Laki eruption would still cause considerable problems, so it is likely that there would still be fatalities.

Icelandic scientists monitoring emissions from Mount Eyjafjallajökull.

In addition to the poisoning by sulphur dioxide, it is likely that many of the deaths in Iceland in 1783-4 were caused by famine, as crops and livestock were smothered by ash, or poisoned by hydrofluoric acid (the ash was unusually rich in this lethal compound). This should be far less of a problem, as modern Iceland would be able to import food to get it through any crop failures, something which was not an option in the 1780s.

In total Schmidt et al. estimate that confronted with a modern Laki-type eruption on a similar scale to the 1783-4 eruption then they could potentially loose up to 400 people, which would be tragic, but is far less devastating than the eighteenth century losses.

From Iceland the volcanic haze drifted east to Europe, which was already suffering from an unprecedented heat-wave. Eighteenth century agriculture was far more labour intensive than modern farming, involving many more people working outdoors, doing hard physical labour in the hight of summer. These agricultural workers proved to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of sulphur dioxide poisoning.

In Britain it is estimated that 23 000 people died from poisoning in the summer of 1873, predominantly in the eastern English counties, where mortality rates reached three times normal. This was followed by an unusually severe winter, the result of volcanic aerosols, which tend to lower temperatures. This is thought to have lead to another 8000 deaths.

Schmidt et al. find that the modern UK is still vulnerable to the effects of a Laki-type eruption. By modeling the effects of sulphur dioxide from known pollution events on a population with the demographic make up of modern Britain, they estimate that approximately 20 900 additional deaths would be caused. This is comparable to the overall number of deaths in the eighteenth century, but represents a much smaller proportion of the population.

Across Western Europe they estimate that there would be between 77 500 and 81 900 additional deaths, with casualties particularly severe in the Netherlands and Belgium in addition to the UK. In the 1780s deaths were caused by famine in addition to poisoning. In modern Europe this is less likely to be a problem, but it is possible that if Europe needed to radically increase its food imports for a sustained period that this could cause famine in other, parts of the world.

The Schmidt et al. model does not attempt to make predictions beyond Europe, but the effects of the 1893-4 eruption much more far-reaching. It is thought to have interfered with the monsoon pattern in Africa and Asia, leading to famine in North Africa and the Sahel region (grasslands of West Africa), as well as India and Japan. It has also been linked to a particularly hard winter in North America.

These effects further afield are far harder to predict. The world has a far better ability to deal with famines than was formerly the case, with co-ordinated international efforts to help famine-hit countries. However it is difficult to predict what might happen in the event of widespread famine across several continents simultaneously. It is possible that developed nations with strong economies might hoard food at the expense of poorer nations, possibly leading to food shortages far from the regions effected by the eruption. It has been suggested that the recent political upheaval in North Africa was at least in part caused by rising food prices, and it is quite possible that a Laki-type eruption might cause widespread political change, just as it did in the eighteenth century.

The Egyptian Revolution of 2011 was probably caused at least in part by rising food prices, a result of the global financial crisis. It is possible that a Laki-type eruption could cause similar uprisings in many more countries.