Six 'space balls' found on Queensland beach.

Local authorities in Forest Beach, Queensland, have set up a 50 m exclusion zone around a group of six spherical objects that washed up on beaches on Friday 3, Saturday 4, and Sunday 5 July 2026. The objects have been identified by the Australian Space Agency as most probably being propellant tanks from a recent space launch. These tanks would have contained pressurised fuel before it was released, during the launch process, and have warned people not to approach them due to the possibility of residual amounts of flammable or reactive chemicals being present.

One of six spherical metal objects which washed up on beaches around Forest Beach, Queensland, in the first week of July 2026. Queensland Fire Department.

Spacecraft tend to contain a lot of thick-walled spherical tanks, which is the most stable shape for a tank containing liquids under pressure in a changing gravity field. Unfortunately this is also a good shape for surviving re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere, so as the amount of space junk orbiting the Earth increases, so does the number of metal spheres falling from the sky. As yet there have been no reported cases of death or serious injury caused by space junk, but it does seem to be an increasing hazard on Earth as well as in orbit, with several reports of damage to property now coming in each year.

The basic design of a hydrazine bladder tank, thought to be the type object found on a Queensland beach this week. The tank comprises a tough, protective, outer shell, typically made of titanium, with a flexible bladder inside, which shrinks as the gas inside is expelled, maintaining a constant pressure. Ariane Orbital Propulsion Centre.

Because the debris are thought to have come from a non-Australian rocket, they are covered by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which enables countries to reclaim any portion of a space vehicle which fell onto another country's territory, in order to investigate any problems with a launch or re-entry procedure. The Australian Space Agency have therefore contacted the country they believe to have carried out the launch from which the tanks came in order to give them the chance to reclaim their parts. They do not, however, expect them to act upon this, as the launch was successful and such tanks are often recovered intact. In the modern world it is unusual for countries to exercise their rights under the Outer Space Treaty, which comes from a time when space travel was a newer and more experimental technology.

A spherical metal object which washed up on a beach near Forest Beach, Queensland, in the first week of July 2026. Queensland Fire Department.

Although not generally considered one of the world's leading environmental problems, the increasing amount of space traffic and man-made objects in orbit, means that the space industry is beginning to have a serious environmental impact. There were 324 space launches in 2025, and have been 154 so far in 2026, with the largest rockets (which are becoming more common, as they can carry multiple satellites at a time) releasing around 76 000 tons of carbon dioxide in a launch. Other environmental impacts are large pieces of debris from launches, such as those found in Queensland this week, but also particulate matter from the breakup of larger pieces of launch stage rockets and satellites re-entering the atmosphere, as well as combustion products of metal and plastics burned during these processes.

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Microeledone galapagensis: A new species of Incirrate Octopus from the Galápagos Islands.

Incirrate, or Finless, Octopuses are one of the two major divisions of the Octopoda, and the one most familiar to most people. Whilst many species living on coastal shelves and the upper part of the water column have been studied extensively, they are also a major part of the deep-sea fauna, although these are much less well known. The Family Megaleledonidae comprises large Incirrate Octopuses with a single sucker-row. These were originally described from the deep waters of the Southern Ocean, and for a long time were assumed to be restricted to the Antarctic, but recently have been found living as far north as Iceland, suggesting a much wider distribution. 

In a paper published in the journal Zootaxa on 25 May 2026, Janet Voight and Stephanie Smith of the Negaunee Integrative Research Center of the Field Museum of Natural History, Salome Buglass of the Charles Darwin Fundación and the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia, and Alexander Ziegler of the Bonner Institut für Organismische Biologie at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, describe a new species of Megaleledonid Octopus from a seamount in the Galápagos Islands.

The species is described from a single female specimen which was recovered by the Remote Operated Vehicle Hercules from a seamount 25 km to the northwest of Isla Darwin, during a ten day voyage of the Research Vessel Nautilus to the Galápagos Marine Reserve. While this specimen was the only one directly examined, two other Octopus apparently belonging to the same species were observed within 1-2 km of the site where the specimen was caught.

The new species is placed in the Genus Microeledone, the first new species added to the genus since it was first described in 2004, and given the specific name galapagensis, meaning 'from the Galápagos'. As the name suggests, members of this genus are smaller than is typical for members of the Megaleledonida, with the single known specimen of Microeledone galapagensis having a mantle-length of only 31.5 mm. It is squat in form, with a head narrower with than the mantle and eyes which do not meet at the midline, and short arms, reaching only 1.4 times the length of the mantle, each of which has up to 30 suckers arranged in a single row. These suckers are tall and straight, with an approximately similar diameter along the tentacle, although they are sightly larger close to the body and slightly smaller at the tip.

Microeledone galapagensis in its natural environment. Voight et al. (2026).

Microeledone galapagensis lacks colouring on its outer mantle, but is heavily pigmented on the inner lining of the dorsal mantle muscles. This is thought to be an adaptation to its habitat and diet. In shallow-water Octopuses, pigment cells on the outer mantle allow the Octopus to change colour in order to blend in with its environment to avoid predators. All known specimens of Microeledone galapagensis were found living at depths of between 1770 and 1800 m beneath the sea surface. At these depths, there is no natural light, and therefore no need for Octopuses to camouflage themselves in this way. However, many available food species bioluminess when threatened, potentially giving away the location of anything consuming them to larger predators. The thick pigmentation on the inner lining of the dorsal mantle should hide such luminescence, thus protecting the Octopus from predation.

Interestingly, the only other known species of Microeledone, Microeledone mangoldi, lacks pigmentation on the inner lining of the dorsal mantle muscles, but has pigmented sheaths over its internal organs, apparently another way to deal with the problem of bioluminescent prey. This implies that the two species independently evolved different solutions to the same problem, which in turn suggests that their last common ancestor did not face this problem, and therefore must have lived in a different environment, presumably a more shallow one.

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Were Octopuses the largest predators in the Cretaceous seas?

Vertebrates became the top predators in almost all marine ecosystems shortly after the evolution of jaws, about 370 million years ago. This has allowed them to shape the structure of these ecosystems, as they have repeatedly evolved large body sizes, combined with increased strength, mobility, and cognitive abilities. In the Mesozoic Era marine predators such as Fish and Sharks were joined by Marine Reptiles such as Ichthyosaurs, Plesiosaurs, Mosasaurs, and Turtles, which secondarily returned to the seas from the land. In the Tertiary Mammalian predators such as Whales and Seals also followed this route. The evolution of the ability to crush shells and other hard parts (durophagy) among various Vertebrate groups caused a major reshaping of marine ecosystems during the Mesozoic (sometimes known as the 'Mesozoic Marine Revolution') in which many marine Invertebrates became smaller, more heavily shelled, and more cryptic in their habits, in response to this increased predation.

The only Invertebrate group which has apparently been occasionally able to challenge the vertebrates for this top-predator status are the Cephalopods (Octopuses, Cuttlefish, Squid, Nautiluses, and the extinct Ammonoids), free-swimming Molluscs which independently evolved jaws at about the same time as Vertebrates. Modern Octopuses are highly intelligent mid-level predators which have either lost their shells or retain them only as vestigial structures. This loss of a mineralised shell has enabled the Octopuses to become more mobile, develop better eyesight, and much greater intelligence.

The Mesozoic fossil record has produced a number of large Cephalopod jaws which have been interpreted as those of Octobranchians (Octopuses or Vampire Squid) likely to have exceeded 2 m in total length. The owners of these jaws have been assumed to have been 'high-level' predators, but little has actually been determined about them, as there are no cases of soft tissue preservation nor stomach contents from which this could be determined. Furthermore, it is very hard to determine the diet of a Cephalopod from its jaw structure, as, while there is considerable variation in such structure across the group, it does not appear to be related to diet.

In a paper published in the journal Science on 23 April 2026, Shin Ikegami of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Hokkaido University, Jörg Mutterlose of the Department of Geosciences at Ruhr University Bochum, Kanta Sugiura, also of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Hokkaido University, Yusuke Takeda of the Spectroscopy and Imaging Division at the Japan Synchrotron Radiation Research Institute, Mehmet Oguz Derin of Morgenrot Inc., Aya Kubota of the Department of Geosciences at Osaka Metropolitan University, Kazuki Tainaka of the Brain Research Institute at Niigata University, Takahiro Harada, also of Morgenrot Inc., Harufumi Nishida of the Department of Biological Sciences at Chuo University, and Yasuhiro Iba, once again of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Hokkaido University, re-examine the status of large Cephalopod jaws from the Mesozoic.

Ikegami et al. examined wear on the jaws of fossil Cephalopods. All such jaws are made from stiffened chitin in life, and therefore are more prone to cracking and wear in more durophagous species, i.e. those which are using their beaks to crack the skeletons of their prey.

Octopus jaws. (A) The entire body of a finned octopus and the position of their upper and lower jaw. (B) Anatomy of feeding organs. (C) The upper jaw. (D) The lower jaw. Ikegami et al. (2026).

Ikegami et al. examined 15 sets of large Octobranchian jaws which had previously been described from Japan and Vancouver Island. They also discovered a series of 12 further such jaws by using a method which they describe as 'digital fossil mining', in which high resolution tomography combined with an artificial intelligence system was used to search for specimens within Cretaceous rocks from Japan. All 27 specimens came from outer-shelf environments lacking wave or current influence, so that transportation-related abrasion to the jaws is unlikely. 

Precise, automatic segmentation of an Octopus jaw fossil and its fine structures using zero-shot learning AI. Ikegami et al. (2026).

All of the preserved specimens are interpreted as having come from members of the Order Cirrata (Finned Octopuses). The excellent preservation of the specimens and the lack of any potential to have been caused during preparation in specimens which had not been freed from the matrix allowed identification of wear patterns caused by the feeding habits of the living Octopuses with some confidence. Pigmentation patterns within the jaws enabled the reconstruction of growth patterns, and the large dataset being used enabled a reassessment of the taxonomy of Cretaceous Cirratans.

Descriptive terms of the Coleoid lower jaw. (A) Inner and outer lamellae. (B) Terms for the individual parts of the lower jaw. (C) Terms for the specific morphological characteristics of the lower jaw. (D) Morphological terms for the area near the jaw edges. (E) Measurements of lengths. Ikegami et al. (2026).

Previous studies have led to the description of five species of Octobranchians from the Cretaceous, all on the basis of fossil jaws. Upon re-examination of this material, Ikegami et al. conclude that only two of these species are valid, Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi and Nanaimoteuthis haggarti. Both are assigned to the genus Nanaimoteuthis, which was formerly thought to be a Vampire Squid, i.e. a member of the Order Vampyromorpha, but which Ikegami et al. reassign to the Winged Octopuses, Suborder Cirrata. Modern Winged Octopuses come in two forms, long-bodied forms, which have broad jaw wings, and short-bodied forms, which have narrow wings on their jaws. Because both species of Nanaimoteuthis have broad wings on their jaws, they are interpreted as long-bodied Winged Octopuses. Taking all the specimens, including the newly discovered ones, into account, Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi first appeared in the earliest Cenomanian (about 100 million years ago) and disappeared in the late Campanian (about 72 million years ago), while Nanaimoteuthis haggarti first appeared during the Santonian (about 86 million years ago, and also disappeared in the late Campanian (about 72 million years ago).

Huge lower jaws of fossil Octopuses and of an extant Giant Squid. (A) and (B) The largest lower jaws of the Late Cretaceous Finned Octopus species Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi, (A) NMNS DS00042 3LmvTpM, and Nanaimoteuthis haggarti, (B) KMNH IvP 902001. Both specimens show extensive loss of jaw material caused by wear. (C) A lower jaw of the extant Giant Squid Architeuthis dux (NSMT-Mo 85956), a species having the largest jaw among modern Cephalopods. (A) is a digital fossil jaw visualized as a 3D model; (B) is an exceptionally well-preserved non-digital fossil jaw; and (C) is a modern jaw dissected from a carcass of about 10 m total body length. Solid lines indicate the extension of striation on the outer surface of the hood and broken lines show the estimated outline of the rostrum without wear. The hood and lateral walls lost by weathering, shown as shadowed areas, are reconstructed based on the holotype and specimen NMNS DS00182 Ru8pBBo. (A) and (C) are exhibited in a mirrored position. Scale bar is 20 mm. Ikegami et al. (2026).

In Cephalopods, there is a direct relationship between the growth of the jaws and that of the soft body, allowing reliable body-size calculations to be made from the jaws alone. Based upon this, the largest specimens of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi are estimated to have had a mantle length of between 67 cm and 184 cm, with a total body-length (including tentacles) of 2.8-7.7 m, while the largest specimens of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti are estimated to have had a mantle length of between 158 cm and 443 cm, with a total body length of 6.6-18.6 m, making it potentially one of the largest predators in the seas of the Late Cretaceous.

Body size estimation of Late Cretaceous Octopuses. The graph shows an allometric relationship between the length of the jaw and mantle in long-bodied species of extant Finned Octopus. The name of the corresponding species is shown along each growth curve. The sizes of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi and Nanaimoteuthis haggarti are based on their largest specimens and are indicated by black vertical lines. Reconstruction of these two species, the extant Giant Squid, and gigantic Vertebrate predators in the Late Cretaceous are shown with their maximum total length. Ikegami et al. (2026).

The largest specimens of both species have beaks blunted and worn by continuous wear, while in juveniles the beaks tend to be sharp. However, it was possible to reconstruct the unworn beak length from the striations and ornamentation of the jaw surface. Thus the largest specimen of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi has lost about 5.7 mm from the tip of its rostrum, while the largest specimen of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti has lost about 10.6 mm. In both cases this represents about 10% of the total jaw length. In both species the right edge of the jaw is more worn than the left edge. Wear takes the form of chips, scratches, and polishing, with the largest chips exceeding 1 mm in both species. The outer surface of the rostrum is polished, removing the original striations, but show numerous scratches, with these reaching up to 5 mm in length, extending vertically or obliquely from the jaw edge. In Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi the inner surface of the oral cavity is more heavily worn than the outer surface, which is indicative of the chewing of food. In Nanaimoteuthis haggarti there are many transverse cracks on the rostrum, these again reaching up to 5 mm in length.

Wear on the lower jaw of a modern Giant Pacific Octopus, Enteroctopus dofleini, (NSMT-Mo 85957). (A) Dorsal view of the entire mouth. (B) to (D) Close-ups of the wear, the positions of which are indicated by boxes in (A). (B) Lateral view of the right jaw edge. (C) Anterior view around the rostrum. (D) Dorsal view of the rostrum. Enteroctopus dofleini is the largest modern octopus species. Scale bars are 10 mm for (A) and 1 mm for (B) to (D). Ikegami et al. (2026).

There are two living suborders of Octopuses, the Finned Octopuses, or Cirrata, which are generally found in deep ocean environments, and the Finless Octopuses, of Incirrata, which are found in coastal environments. The discovery of specimens of the Finned Octopus Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi in deposits from the earliest Cenomanian (about 100 million years ago) pushes back the fossil record of the Ciratta by about 15 million years, and of crown-group Octopuses by about 5 million years. The presence of these fossils in Japan and on Vancouver Island indicates that large Finned Octopuses were found in outer shelf environments on either side of the Pacific during the Late Cretaceous (at which time the Pacific was already the world's largest ocean).

Wear on the largest lower jaw of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi. (A) and (B) The entire specimen in (A) dorsal view and (B) anterior view. The broken line in (A) shows the boundary where striations become lost. (C) to (H) Close-ups of wear, of which the positions are indicated by boxes in (A) and (B). (C) Lateral view of the right jaw edge with chips (arrows). (D) Dorsal view of the rounded rostral part with scratches (arrows). (E) Oblique view of the rostral part with chips (arrows). (F) Area showing striations, which extends vertically in this figure (arrows). (G) Polished area where striation is lost, with scratches (arrows). (H) Asymmetric loss of the jaw edges (arrows), indicated by a mirrored image in 50% transparency overlaid beneath the original image. All panels show the specimen NMNS DS00042 3LmvTpM. Scale bars are 10 mm for (A), (B), and (H), and 1 mm for (C) to (G). Ikegami et al. (2026).

The living Cirrata can be split into two morphological groups, long-bodied forms (families Cirroctopodidae, Cirroteuthidae, Grimpoteuthidae, and Stauroteuthidae), and short-bodied forms (Family Opisthoteuthidae). Ikegami et al.'s analysis strongly suggests that both species of Nanaimoteuthis are long-bodied forms, something which is in line with both evidence from previously reported fossils, with more than 50 genera of Mesozoic Octobranchians discovered, all of which are long-bodied forms, and molecular phylogenies, which suggest that the Incerrata arose from within the Cerrata, implying that long-bodied forms arose first and that short-bodied forms evolved from these.

Wear on the largest lower jaw of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti. (A) and (B) The entire specimen in (A) dorsal view and (B) anterior view. (C) to (K) Close-ups of the wear, of which the accurate positions are indicated by boxes in (A), (B), and (G). (C) and (G) Lateral view of the right jaw edge with chips, scratches, and cracks. (E) Dorsal view of the rounded rostral part with scratches and cracks. Schematic drawings of (C), (E), and (G) are shown in (D), (F), and (H), respectively. (I) Area showing striation, which extends vertically in this figure. (J) Polished area where striation is lost. (K) Asymmetric loss of the jaw edges (arrows), indicated by a mirrored image in 50% transparency overlaid beneath the original image. All panels show the specimen KMNH IvP 902001. The broken line in (A), (G), and (H) shows the boundary where striation becomes lost. Scale bars are 10 mm for (A), (B), (E) to (H), and (K), and 1 mm for (C), (D), (I), and (J). Ikegami et al. (2026).

Nanaimoteuthis haggarti is significantly larger than Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi and examination of pigment patterns in the jaws of specimens of both species suggests that it grew significantly faster. Since the first known fossils of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti appeared about 86 million years ago, while the first specimens of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi appeared about 100 million years ago, this suggests that these ancient Cirratans went through an evolutionary change enabling the emergence of gigantic forms about 10 million years after they first appeared.

The growth rate of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti and Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi based on pigmentation patterns. (A) Schematic drawings for the ontogenetic changes from juvenile to adult jaws, based on modern Octopuses. Unpigmented regions decrease with growth. (B) Nanaimoteuthis haggarti  (NMNS_DS00182_Ru8pBBo.stl), corresponding to the left stage of (A). (C) Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi (NMNS_DS00173_P74Doy1.stl), corresponding to the middle stage of (A). The broken lines in (B) and (C) indicate the original outline including unpigmented parts, reconstructed based on the adults of the same species. The posterior and ventral margins of (B) and (C) taper without fractures, indicating that they retain the original pigmentation patterns. The specimen of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti has a weakly pigmented inner lamella compared to that of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi  with a smaller size. This pattern indicates that Nanaimoteuthis haggarti is in an earlier growth stage compared to Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi. Therefore, Nanaimoteuthis haggarti grew faster than Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi. Scale bars are 1 mm. Ikegami et al. (2026).

The extremely large size of Nanaimoteuthis haggarti makes it larger than the Giant Squid, Architeuthis dux, which has a maximum jaw length of about 80 mm, by about 50%. The Giant Squid can have a mantle length of about 2.5 m and a total length of about 12 m, something which has made it the largest known living or fossil invertebrate until now. It also rivals or exceeds the dimensions of the largest Vertebrates in the Cretaceous Seas, including the Ray-finned Fish, Xiphactinus audax, which reached about 5 m in length, the Lamniform Shark, Ptychodus mortoni, which reached about 10 m, Plesiosaurs of the genus Styxosaurus, which reached about 12 m, and the giant Mosasaur, Mosasaurus hoffmannii, the longest specimens of which may have reached about 17 m. Thus Nanaimoteuthis haggarti appears to have been one of the largest organisms in the Cretaceous oceans.

Most living Cephalopods are generalist carnivores, preying on Crustaceans, shelled Molluscs, other Cephalopods, and Bony Fish. Wear to the tip and edges of the beak is typically present in durophagous forms such as Octopuses and Cuttlefish, but absent in non-durophagous forms such as Squid. Thus the presence of such wear can be used to make judgements about the diet of fossil Cephalopods, such as Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi and Nanaimoteuthis haggarti. In these Cretaceous Cirratans it is estimated that about 10% of the jaws of large adult specimens had been worn away, but such wear is absent in juvenile specimens, as it is in contemporaneous Squid. The extent of wear seen is greater than is found in any living Cephalopod, suggesting that these were active carnivores, frequently using their beaks to crush hard shells and bone. The distribution of the wear on the jaws is asymmetric, which suggests lateralized behaviour (i.e. these Octopuses had a preferred side when manipulating prey, similar to handedness in Humans), something which is associated with cognative ability in Cepahlopods, suggesting that these Cretaceous Octopuses were already highly intelligent. 

The jaws of Nanaimoteuthis jeletzkyi and Nanaimoteuthis haggarti are much shorter than the jaws of most Late Cretaceous predatory marine Vertebrates. However, the long lateral walls of these jaws suggest they had powerful jaw muscles, and the cracks and chips on the beaks suggests that they were exerting forces which exceeded the resistance of the strongest parts of the jaw. In the larger Nanaimoteuthis haggarti transverse cracking is also present, probably representing larger shear failures caused by greater forces being applied. Thus these jaws appear to have been used to break up food items of considerable size and resilience. The difference in overall size is likely to have derived from the way in which Octopuses hunt, using their elongated arms to capture and overwhelm prey, rather than their jaws as in most marine Vertebrates.

Vertebrates have been the top predators in the oceans for most of the past 370 million years. The appearance of durophagous predation in a variety of lineages in the Mesozoic enabled a greater diversity of such predators, and drove marine ecosystems towards the structure we have today. Mesozoic Invertebrates have chiefly been viewed as prey during this process, adapting to increased predation pressures by becoming smaller, more heavily armoured, and more cryptic in their habits (better at hiding). Ikegami et al.'s study suggests that some Octopuses did not follow this path, instead becoming giant predators which rose to the top of the food web.

Convergent evolution among marine top predators in the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic. This model shows the acquisition of jaws and the reduction of superficial skeletons in the evolutionary history of marine Vertebrates (top) and Cephalopods (bottom) to become top predators. The grey horizontal bars show the chronological range of some selected groups of Vertebrates and Cephalopods. For Cephalopods, stepwise reductions of skeletons are indicated by the blue background. Ikegami et al. (2026).

Both Vertebrates and Cephalopods first evolved jaws in the Late Silurian or Early Devonian, between 423 and 407 million years ago, something which greatly improved their hunting efficiency. Vertebrates subsequently lost their external bony plates, and in larger species greatly reduced their scaly coverings to achieve smooth skin, while at the same time Cephalopods first internalised and then gradually lost their shells. In both cases, this was associated with increased swimming speeds, size, and intelligence. Vertebrates became top predators in the oceans long before Cephalopods completed this process, but during the Cretaceous some Octopuses were able to evolve a bodyplan which enabled them to compete with the very largest Vertebrates.

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The potential for a major El Niño event developing soon, and for 2026 to be the hottest year on record.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation system is a major driver of the Earth's climate variations, driven by fluctuations in the temperature in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. This has two phases, El Niño, in which surface temperatures are high, and La Niña, in which they are low (although the Pacific is not always in one of these phases, there are neutral periods when neither occurs). The impacts of these oscillations are complex, but overall, the El Niño phase is associated with warmer global temperatures, while the La Niña phase is associated with cooler global temperatures. The warmest year on record, 2024, was associated with an El Niño phase.

In March 2026, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts began issuing warnings that the Pacific Ocean might be going to enter an El Niño phase in 2026. This is in some ways surprising, the ocean was still in a La Niña phase in March, and predictions made this early in the year are not usually considered reliable. Furthermore, less than three years had passed since the most recent El Niño phase, which is in itself unusual.

Map of sea-surface temperature anomaly issued in March 2026 and valid for June, July and August. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

However, the El Niño Southern Oscillation system does not operate in isolation. The temperatures in the Pacific surface waters during the 2015-2016 and 2024 El Niño events were significantly higher than the 1997-98 event, which was the warmest event of the 20th century. Furthermore, the La Niña phases bracketing these 21st century events were much less extreme than those around the 1997-98 event (that is the surface waters did not cool as much), so these events were much less extreme in the sense that they did not drift as far from the average sea surface temperatures over a longer period. In fact, the three most recent La Niña phases have been accompanied by Pacific Ocean temperatures warmer than during the 1997-98 El Niño event.

On 15 April 2026 the UK's Met Office issued a warning that there was likely to be a severe El Niño event in 2026-2027, and on 14 May, the Climate Prediction Service of the United States National Weather Service also issued a press release warning that their predictions gave an 82% chance of the Pacific entering an El Niño phase between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance that El Niño conditions would exist between December 2026 and February 2027.

The reason behind the earliness and severity of these warnings is based upon a change in how predictions are made. Previously, predictions have been made upon the temperature of the surface of the ocean, which has not allowed for very long predictions. However, recent research has shown that a much more accurate, and longer-term, prediction can be made if the temperature of the top 300 m is used. 

In March 2026, the average temperature for the top 300 m of water in the central Pacific was already 1.0°C above baseline temperatures. This in itself is consistent with an El Niño, or even super El Niño event (an event, such as that in 1997-98, in which the surface waters of the Pacific are not just exceptionally warm, but at least 2.0°C warmer than the recent average sea temperatures). In the first week of April the temperature of these waters continued to rise sharply, reaching 1.6°C above baseline temperatures.

This has the potential to have a profound impact on the global average temperature. Predictions already suggested 2026 would be a hot year, with a 62% chance of being one of the four hottest years on record, and a 19% chance of being the hottest year (i.e. temperatures exceeding those of 2024). It has been suggested that there is a 30% chance of 2026 being the second year in which global average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (defined as average temperatures between 1850 and 1900). The sharp increase in the temperature of the waters of the Pacific now makes these predictions look more-or-less inevitable.

An El Niño event has a number of profound affects upon the climate. South America tends to have much higher rainfall during El Niño events, while Indonesia, Australia, and Southeast Asia can suffer severe droughts. In India and Africa, rainfall patterns can be affected in less predictable ways, with some areas suffering high rainfall and flooding while others suffer severe droughts. Tropical storms become less common in the Atlantic, but more frequent in the Pacific. 

This is likely to have implications for food production in many parts of the world, with a combination of droughts and floods triggered by an El Niño event coming at the same time as fertiliser shortages triggered by Iran having closed the Straits of Hormuz in response to the Israeli and US attack earlier this year, making famine events likely. At the same time, the agencies which might provide relief during such events are suffering from a much reduced ability to act following the withdrawal of funding by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. This is situation is also likely to be impacted by predicted rises in fuel prices, also triggered by the war in the Gulf of Persia, further limiting international agencies ability to respond to any crisis. 

A super El Niño event, starting from a base of record high sea temperatures, which now appears very likely, could have even more severe impacts. The super El Niño event of 1876 triggered a global famine which killed around 50 million people, about 3% of the world's population at that time. On this occasion the El Niño event caused the almost total collapse of the South Asian Monsoon, leading to the worst drought in 800 years, with concurrent droughts across Australia, Southeast Asia, Brazil, and North and Southern Africa (although it is also generally accepted that the high mortality rates in India were driven as much by the policies of the British colonial government as the drought itself).

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