Showing posts with label Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. Show all posts

Wednesday, 14 January 2026

Asteroid (242708) 2005 UK1 passes the Earth.

Asteroid (242708) 2005 UK1 passed by the Earth at a distance of about 12 355 300 km (32.2 times the average distance between the Earth and the Moon, or 8.26% of the distance between the Earth and the Sun), slightly after 10.25 am GMT on Monday 12 January 2026. There was no danger of the asteroid hitting us, though were it to do so it would have presented a significant threat. Asteroid (242708) 2005 UK1 has an estimated equivalent diameter of 450-1400 m (i.e. it is estimated that a spherical object with the same volume would be 450-1400 m in diameter), and an object of this size would be expected to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere and impact  the Earth's surface, causing an explosion with an equivalent energy release of more than 4000 megatons of TNT. An impact of this size would be expected to flatten forests and man-made structures over thousands of kilometres, while producing a crater at least 6 km in diameter and probably significantly larger, as well as causing global climatic effects which would persist for decades if not centuries.

120 second image of (242708) 2005 UK1 taken with the Elena Planetwave 17" Telescope at Ceccano in Italy on Sunday 11 March 2026. The asteroid is the small point at the centre of the image, the longer lines are stars, their elongation being caused by the telescope tracking the asteroid over the length of the exposure. Gianluca Masi/Virtual Telescope.

(242708) 2005 UK1 was discovered on 24 October 2005 by the University of Arizona's Mt. Lemmon Survey at the Steward Observatory on Mount Lemmon in the Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. The designation 2005 UK1 implies that the asteroid was the 35th object (asteroid K1 - in numbering asteroids the letters A-Z, excluding I, are assigned numbers from 1 to 25, with a number added to the end each time the alphabet is ended, so that A = 1, A1 = 26, A2 = 51, etc., which means that K1 = 25 + 10 = 25) discovered in the second half of October 2005 (period 2005 K - the year being split into 24 half-months represented by the letters A-Y, with I being excluded).

(242708) 2005 UK1 is calculated to have a 1445 day (3.96 year) orbital period, with an elliptical orbit tilted at an angle of 0.79° to the plain of the Solar System which takes in to 0.79 AU from the Sun (79% of the average distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun) and out to 4.24 AU (4.24 times the distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun, almost three times the distance at which the planet Mars orbits). 

The positions and orbits of Asteroid (242708) 2005 UK1 and the planets of the Inner Solar System at 10.00 am on Monday 12 January 2026. JPL Small Body Database.

(242708) 2005 UK1 is therefore classed as an Apollo Group Asteroid, which is an asteroid that is on average further from the Sun than the Earth, but which does get closer. As an asteroid possibly larger than 150 m in diameter that occasionally comes within 0.05 AU of the Earth, (242708) 2005 UK1 is also classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.

Close encounters between (242708) 2005 UK1 and Earth are fairly common, with the last thought to have happened in April 2018 and the next predicted in December 2029. (242708) 2005 UK1  also has frequent close encounters with other planets, the last being an encounter with Venus in September 1974, and the next predicted being an encounter with Mars in February 2133.

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Friday, 31 May 2024

Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 HP passes the Earth.

Asteroid 2024 HP passed by the Earth at a distance of about 592 000 km (15.4 times the average distance between the Earth and the Moon, or 3.96% of the distance between the Earth and the Sun), with a relative velocity of about 7.67 km per second, slightly before 5.00 pm GMT on Thursday 23 May 2024. There was no danger of the asteroid hitting us, though were it to do so it would have presented a significant threat. 2024 HP has an estimated equivalent diameter of 160-350 m (i.e. it is estimated that a spherical object with the same volume would be 160-350 m in diameter), and an object of this size would be expected to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere and impact  the Earth's surface, causing an explosion with an equivalent energy release to between 1.5 and  12.8 megatons of TNT. An impact at the lower end of this range would be expected to flatten forests and man-made structures over a significant distance, while one at the upper end of the range could cause a crater 2.87 km in diameter and global climatic effects which would persist for decades if not centuries.

300 second image of 2024 JN16 taken with the Celestron 14"-F8/8.4 (356/3000 mm) Schmidt-Cassegrain Telescope at Ceccano in Italy on 28 May 2024, when the asteroid was 6.8 million km from the Earth, and moving away. The asteroid is the small point at the centre of the image, indicated by the white arrow, the longer lines are stars, their elongation being caused by the telescope tracking the asteroid over the length of the exposure. Gianluca Masi/Virtual Telescope Project.

2024 HP was discovered on 17 April 2024 (36 days before its closest approach to the Earth) by the University of Arizona's Mt. Lemmon Survey at the Steward Observatory on Mount Lemmon in the Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. The designation 2024 HP implies that the asteroid was the fifteenth object (asteroid P - in numbering asteroids the letters A-Z, excluding I, are assigned numbers from 1 to 25, with a number added to the end each time the alphabet is ended, so that A = 1, A1 = 26, A2 = 51, etc., which means that P = 15) discovered in the second half of April 2024 (period 2024 H - the year being split into 24 half-months represented by the letters A-Y, with I being excluded).

The relative positions of 2024 HP and the Earth at 5.00 pm on Thursday 23 May 2024. JPL Small Body Database.

2024 HP is calculated to have a 983 day (2.69 year) orbital period, with an elliptical orbit tilted at an angle of 6.53° to the plain of the Solar System which takes in to 1.01 AU from the Sun (101% of the average distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun) and out to 2.85 AU (2.85 times the distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun, almost twice the distance at which the planet Mars orbits). 

The positions and orbits of 2024 HP and the planets of the Inner Solar System at 5.00 pm on Thursday 23 May 2024. JPL Small Body Database.

2024 HP is therefore classed as an Apollo Group Asteroid, which is an asteroid that is on average further from the Sun than the Earth, but which does get closer (1.01 AU from the Sun would appear to be further from the Sun than the Earth, which is, on average 1.00 AU from the Sun, but at aphelion, which happens in July each year, the Earth reaches almost 1.02 AU from the Sun). As an asteroid possibly larger than 150 m in diameter that occasionally comes within 0.05 AU of the Earth, 2024 HP is also classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.

2024 HP is calculated to have fairly regular close encounters with the Earth, with the last thought to have happened in April 2016 and the next predicted for August 2032.

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Tuesday, 12 December 2023

The Geminid Meteors.

The Geminid Meteor Shower is expected to peak at about 2.00 am on Thursday 14 December this year (2023) with potentially up to 120 meteors per hour being visible in areas of the Northern Hemisphere with a clear sky. This year peak activity for the shower comes slightly after the New Moon on Tuesday 12 December, so viewing should be largely unhampered by moonlight. The meteors appear to radiate from a point in the constellation of Gemini, hence their name.

The radiant point of the Geminid Meteors (i.e. the point from which the meteors radiate). Gregg Dinderman/Sky & Telescope.

Oddly for a meteor shower, the Geminids do not appear to be related to a comet, but instead are associated with an object called 3200 Phaethon, which is classed as an Apollo Asteroid (an asteroid with an orbit that crosses that of the Earth). 3200 Phaethon has a highly elliptical orbit, which takes it in as close as 0.14 Au (14% of the distance between the Earth and the Sun, more than twice as close as Mercury) and out as far as 2.4 AU (2.4 times as far from the Sun as the Earth or 1.6 times as far as Mars). 3200 Phaethon does not appear to produce any sort of halo (a cloud of material produced by the evaporation of gas ice from the surface of a comet, thought to be the source of most meteor showers); rather it appears dark in colour an is classed as a B-type Carbonaceous Asteroid, thought to have a surface covering of  anhydrous silicates, hydrated clay minerals, organic polymers, magnetite, and sulphides.

Animation made from images of 3200 Phaeton captured on 17 December 2017, when it was at the closest point of its orbit to Earth, from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico. National Science Foundation/NASA/Wikimedia Commons.

Asteroid 3200 Phaethon is a 5 km body with a highly eccentric orbit similar to that of a comet, which takes it closer to the Sun than any other named Asteroid. It appears to be the parent body of the Geminid Meteors, which share essentially the same orbit as it, as well as a group of larger bodies known as the Phaethon-Geminid Complex. Such meteor showers typically form from the tail of a comet; as the comet approaches its perihelion (the closest point in its orbit to the Sun), ice at the surface sublimates away (turns directly from a solid to a gas - liquids do not form in a vacuum), releasing particles of silica trapped in the ice, which continue to follow essentially the same path as the comet, creating a meteor shower every time the Earth passes through this stream. However, 3200 Phaethon, which has a 1.43 year orbital period in which it reaches 0.14 AU from the Sun (14% of the distance between the Earth and the Sun, or less than half the distance at which Mercury orbits) is thought to regularly suffer surface temperatures in excess of 1000K, making it highly unlikely that it has ice on its surface, which calls its potential role as the parent body to the Geminid Meteors into question. 3200 Phaethon is classed as an Apollo Group Asteroid (an asteroid that is on average further from the Sun than the Earth, but which does get closer). As an asteroid probably larger than 150 m in diameter that occasionally comes within 0.05 AU of the Earth, it is also classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.

The orbit and current position of 3200 Phaethon. JPL Small Body Database.

In a paper published on the arXiv online database at Cornell University Library on 17 June 2013, David Jewitt of the Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of California Los Angeles, Jing Li of the Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of California Los Angeles, and Jessica Agarwal of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, describe the results of a study of 3200 Phaeton using the NASA STEREO Spacecraft.

Jewitt et al. observed two successive perihelions of 3200 Phaeton, in June 2009 and May 2012. On both occasions they were able to observe a faint comet-like dust tail emerging from the body, even though it was apparently reaching temperatures that would rapidly destroy an icy comet. This tail grew rapidly, reaching a length of over 250 000 km within a day of first appearing, and appeared to represent material being lost from the parent body at a rate of about 3 kg per second.

Composite images of 3200 Phaethon in 2009 (top row) and 2012 (bottom row) compared with the projected sun- comet line (white). The Sun is to the upper right in each panel. Insets are 49000 square and show eld stars near to Phaethon to demonstrate the point spread function of the data. Each panel has North to the top, East to the left and shows the median of 30 images taken over a 1 day period. Jewitt et al. (2013).

Jewitt et al. suggest that at it's perihelion 3200 Phaethon is being heated to such a degree that hydrated minerals at its surface could be thermally fractured and desiccated, leading to the ejection of dust particles.

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Sunday, 6 November 2022

Looking for asteroids inside the orbits of the Earth.

The past few decades has seen the discovery of hundreds of thousands of small bodies within our Solar System, a process greatly expanded by the introduction of automated sky surveys. However, almost all of these bodies orbit further from the Sun than the Earth, or at least spend part of their orbital cycle outside the Earth's orbit; asteroids which orbit closer to the Sun than the Earth have proven extremely hard to detect, as such bodies are masked by the glare of the Sun. Detecting small bodies with orbits similar to that of Venus requires making observations close to the horizon, where telescopes are looking through the greatest possible airmass, and facing the greatest challenge from ground-based light pollution. Furthermore, these observations must be made close to dawn or dusk, when the observation window is of a very short duration. This is not an insignificant problem, as objects within this area are usually Near Earth Objects (asteroids which either come close to the Earth's orbit, or have the potential to do so), so it is important to know if they are in stable or unstable orbits.

To date only 25 objects have been found which orbit entirely within the orbit of the Earth, these being known as the Atira Asteroids (sometimes the Apophe Asteroids). In contrast, many thousands of asteroids are known which have orbits which cross that of the Earth, known as Aten Asteroids if their semi-major access (average distance from the Sun) is lower than that of the Earth, or Apollo Asteroids if it is larger. 

Asteroids are known to occasionally move from population-to-population, as well as sometimes breaking apart, due to tidal stresses, excess rotational speed, or heating from the Sun, and a better understanding of asteroids closer to the Sun than the Earth is likely to enable us to better understand these processes.

Near Earth Objects have orbits which are influenced by that of the Earth, but objects orbiting entirely inside of the Earth's orbit have the potential to be more greatly influenced by the orbit of Venus. Five asteroids are currently known which have orbital periods close to that of Venus, (322756) 2001 CK32, (524522) 2002 VE68, 2012 XE133, 2013 ND15, and 2015 WZ12, and seven have semi-major accesses close to that of Venus, 2020 BT2, 2020 CL1, 2020 QU5, 2021 XA1, 2021 XO3, 2022 BL5, and 2022 CD. All of these asteroids have orbits which cross that of the Earth, and which are therefore considered to be unstable on million-year timescales. All known Earth co-orbital asteroids also have unstable orbits. There is, however, a potential for asteroids to exist in stable orbits resonant with those of Earth or Venus, although no such asteroids have been discovered to date. Venus lacks any known satellites, which suggests that it's Hill sphere (the zone around a planet within which a body could be captured as a satellite) is unstable, due to its proximity to the Sun and other planets. At the same time, objects smaller than 1 km in diameter close to the orbit of Venus, while likely to exist, are beneath the observation limits of most surveys that have looked at this area.

The orbit and current position of (322756) 2001 CK32, an Aten Family Asteroid with an orbital period close to that of Venus, discovered on 13 February 2001 by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research project. JPL Small Body Database.

The HELIOS and STEREO space missions have both detected a narrow ring of dust following Venus's orbit, which is likely to have originated from a family of asteroids co-orbital with the planet. Models of Solar System evolution have suggested that 8% of a population of small bodies co-orbital with Venus during the early stages of Solar System formation would be likely to remain till today, making it possible that Venus does retain a population of primordial co-orbital asteroids, likely to have a nature quite unlike that of other Near Earth Asteroids or higher eccentricity Venus-co-orbitals. No potential member of such a population has never been observed, but their existence cannot be ruled out due to the paucity of observations in this region.

A significant portion of the near-Venus sky has recently been surveyed using small telescopes, with the most extensive survey of this region having been carried out using the 48-inch (1.2 m) telescope of the Zwicky Transient Facility. This survey discovered the first known asteroid that orbits entirely inside of the orbit of Venus, (594913) ’Ayló’chaxnim 2020 AV2, thought to have a diameter of about 1.5 km, with the telescope used probably not able to detect objects much smaller.

In a paper published in the Astronomical Journal on 29 September 2022, a team of scientists led by Scott Shepherd of the Earth and Planets Laboratory at the Carnegie Institution for Science, present the results of a survey carried out for objects close to the orbit of Venus with the Dark Energy Camera attached to the Blanco 4 m telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile,

Shepherd et al. carried out an initial survey in September 2019, which covered about 45 square degrees of sky, followed by a longer survey between June 2021 and January 2022, bringing the total sky surveyed to 624 square degrees. Survey time was limited to about 10 minutes each twilight, just after nautical twilight ends in the evening and just before nautical twilight begins in the morning, when the Sun is usually between 15 and 12 degrees below the horizon. Surveys were carried out close to the horizon, subject to the 23° limit of the telescope. 

These conditions generally excluded the observation of asteroids exterior to the Earth's orbit, which would be much further away (on the other side of the Solar System, as the telescope is looking inwards) and therefore dimmer and harder to detect through the high airmass and light interference of the near-horizon near-twilight sky. There will will also be a significant difference in apparent motion of bodies inside and outside the orbit of the Earth. Bodies interior to the Earth generally have an apparent motion in excess of 100 arcseconds per hour, rising to 150 arcseconds per hour in bodies close to the orbit of Venus, while bodies in the Main Asteroid Belt or beyond will have apparent motions of 80 arcseconds per hour or lower.

Potential asteroids detected during this survey were subject to follow up observations made using the University of Hawaii 88 inch telescope, the Canada-France-Hawaii 3.6 m telescope, the 6.5 m Baade–Magellan telescope of the Las Cumbres Observatory, and the 1 meter global network of telescopes operated by the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office.

Shepherd et al.'s study discovered three new asteroids, one of which is thought to be less than a kilometre in diameter, as well as making additional sightings of several previously observed Near Earth Objects, from the Atira, Aten, Amor, and Apollo asteroid populations, adding to our knowledge of those bodies. 

The first asteroid described is 2021 PH27, discovered on 13 August 2021 by Scott Shepherd during a collaboration between the Dark Energy Camera twilight asteroid survey and the Local Volume Complete Cluster Survey, and re-observed on 14 August 2021 by the Dark Energy Camera and the Baade-Magellan telescope. The object was relatively bright, with a Magnitude of 19.2, enabling it to be observed by smaller telescopes, and on the third night of observations, 15 August 2021, as well as again being detected by the Dark Energy Camera and the Baade-Magellan telescope, it was observed by two of the 1 m telescopes of the Planetary Defence Office, in Chile and South Africa. This provided sufficient information about the object to search for it in previously recorded images, with it being found in an image taken by the Dark Energy Camera on 16 July 2017. The object was observed again in March 2022.

2021 PH27 has the smallest semi-major axis (average distance from the Sun) of any asteroid ever discovered, and the second smallest semi-major axis of any known Solar System body, behind the planet Mercury. As a consequence of this it also has the lowest known orbital period of any asteroid discovered to date, at 113 days. It is an Atira Family Asteroid, i.e. one which always remains closer to the Sun than the Earth, with a highly eccentric orbit which crosses the orbital paths of both Venus and Mercury, bringing it to a distance of 0.133 AU from the Sun (i.e. 13.3% of the distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun, or slightly a third of the distance at which the planet Mercury orbits the Sun).

The orbit of the newly discovered Atira asteroid 2021 PH27, which has the smallest semimajor axis of any known asteroid. Though it orbits the Sun faster than Venus as its semi-major axis is less than that of Venus, 2021 PH27 has an aphelion exterior to Venus. It also has a perihelion interior to Mercury’s orbit, causing 2021 PH27 to experience the largest general relativistic effects from the Sun’s gravity of any object known in the solar system. Shepherd et al. (2022).

A computer model used by Shepherd et al. suggests that the orbit of 2021 PH27 is unstable on a million-year timescale. The asteroid will pass through the Hill Sphere of Venus (zone within which a body might be captured as a satellite) within the next 950-1050 years, although it is unlikely to be captured, and may already be in a Kozai–Lidov oscillation with the planet (a pattern in which two bodies regularly interact, causing a regular flip between two orbital paths with different eccentricities and inclinations; where one of the bodies is an asteroid and the other a planet this would have a negligible impact on the planet, with all the change being to the orbit of the asteroid). 

At its closest point to the Sun, the surface of 2021 PH27 is likely to reach about 500°C, which will presumably have caused considerable thermal processing on the surface, as well as repeated stress to the interior of the asteroid from heating and cooling. It is possible that the asteroid is 'active' (shedding material like a comet), in which case it is likely to cause meteor showers on Venus.

The brightness of 2021 PH27 (magnitude 19.2 at discovery), combined with its low aphelion distance (furthest distance from the Sun) of 0.72 AU, which is just outside the orbit of Venus, combined with its high inclination (32°), suggest that it would be more-or-less impossible for regular Near Earth Object surveys to have spotted.

The most plausible explanation for the origin of 2021 PH27 is that derives from the Main Asteroid Belt, and was knocked from its former orbit by an encounter with Jupiter's gravity field, being captured onto its current orbit by an encounter with Venus. However, there are other possible origins for the asteroid, such as having come from a small population of ancient bodies with orbits resonant with that of Venus, or even a (theoretical) population of Vulcanoid Asteroids orbiting entirely inside the orbit of Mercury.

The second asteroid discussed is 2021 LJ4, which was observed by the Dark Energy Camera on 6 June 2021, and then again on 8 June 2021. Confirming observations were made by the Canada-France-Hawaii 3.6 m telescope on Maunakea on 9 and 11 June 2021, along with further observations by the Dark Energy Camera. 

2021 LJ4 is a more typical Atira Family Asteroid, with an aphelion distance of 0.93 AU, just inside the orbit of the Earth, and an orbital period of 202 days. It's orbit crosses those of both Venus and Mercury, and based on it's proximity to Earth and magnitude at its time of discovery (21.4) it is thought to be between 300 and 400 m in diameter.

The orbit of 2021 LJ4, and it's position on 6 June 2021. JPL Small Body Database.

The third asteroid discussed is 2022 AP7, first observed on 13 January 2022 by the Dark Energy Camera, then resighted on 16, 18, 21 and 23 January 2022. A few weeks later the asteroid was spotted by both the Las Cumbres telescopes and the University of Hawaii 88 inch telescope, and subsequently located in images captured in 2017 by the Near Earth Object searches of the Pan-STARRS telescope and Catalina Sky Survey.

This enables a fairly accurate reconstruction of the orbit of 2022 AP7, which is calculated to be an Apollo Group Asteroid with a perihelion distance of 0.83 AU (between the orbits of Venus and Earth) and an aphelion distance of 5.0 AU (close to the orbit of Jupiter), making it an Earth-orbit crossing Near Earth Object.

The calculated orbit of 2022 AP7 and its position on 13 January 2022. JPL Small Body Database.

2022 AP7 is thought to have an Earth minimum orbit intersection distance of 0.0475 AU (7 106 000 km or less than twice the distance between the Earth and the Moon), making it a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid. It only had a magnitude of 20.8 at the time when it was detected, but was at that time 1.9 AU from the Earth and about 1.4 AU from the Sun, which even assuming a moderate albido (reflectiveness) implies an object 1.0-2.3 km in diameter, which would make 2022 AP7 the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid discovered since 2014.

This is quite surprising; 2022 AP7 is clearly a large object, and regularly comes close to the orbit of the Earth (it has an orbital period of 5 years), something which would ought in theory to have been been detected by earlier Near Earth Object surveys, which have concentrated on the zone outside the Earth's orbit where 2022 AP7 spends much of its time. There are two possible explanations for this; either the asteroid is on an orbit which keeps it away from the Earth, or it is darker than has been calculated, bur undergoes some form of cometary effect at perihelion, causing it to brighten at this point. Shepherd et al.'s orbital calculations suggest that the former is the case, with 2022 AP7 never coming near the Earth on its current orbital trajectory.

The principle objective of Shepherd et al.'s study was to look for Venus co-orbital asteroids, or asteroids with stable Venus-resonant orbits, neither of which were detected. However, the study did detect 4 Atira Family Asteroids (about 15% of the total known Atira population). This enables some constraints to be put on the size of the populations of Atira Asteroids (asteroids that orbit entirely inside the orbit of Earth) and Vatira Asteroids (asteroids that orbit entirely inside the orbit of Venus).

Previous models of the Inner Solar System have suggested that there may be a population of asteroids with stable orbits resonant and co-orbital with Venus, which have remained there since the origin of the Solar System. If these asteroids do in fact exist, then Shepherd et al.'s survey should have detected between 21 and 23 of all such bodies larger than 1 km in diameter (dependent on their albedo). Their failure to discover any such asteroids, in common with that of all previous surveys, suggests that if these asteroids exist at all, then they are very few in number, with probably no more than four objects larger than 1 km in existence. Smaller objects would be less well constrained, although objects greater than 500 m in diameter with high albedos would appear to be equally rare.

There are five asteroids for which repeat observations have been made, which are on orbits with similar periods to Venus, (322756) 2001 CK32, (524522) 2002 VE68, 2012 XE133, 2013 ND15, and 2015 WZ12, as well as a number of asteroids detected since 2020 which appear to have similar properties. All of these are thought to be less than a kilometre in diameter, with orbits unstable on a millions-of-years timescale. Shepherd et al.'s study was predicted to find between 5 and 10% of any population of similar asteroids with diameters in excess of 1 km, but did not detect any, suggesting that larger asteroids with these properties are again very rare.

Shepherd et al. discovered two new Atira Family Asteroids, 2012 LJ4 and 2021 PH27, as well as making additional observations of two previously discovered Atiras, 2019 AQ3 and 2021 BS1. The survey was predicted to detect between 5 and 8% of the population of Atira Asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter, which suggests that the total population of such asteroids is between 50 and 75, of which 25 have been discovered to date. Assuming a total population of Near Earth Asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter of about 1000, then the Atiras would make up about 5% of this population. This was predicted in earlier models of the Near Earth Object population, although more recent models have tended to put the number of Atiras lower, at about 1% of the total population.

This has two possible implications. Firstly, the lower estimates of the population size of the Atira Asteroids is correct, and we have actually discovered the majority of these bodies.  Secondly, there are more Atiras than we previously realised, and many remain undetected. This later possibility would be more likely if many of these bodies have either low semi-major axes, low eccentricities, or high inclinations, all of which would result in objects which do not closely approach the Earth. This later explanation fits with the known properties of 2021 PH27, which has a low semi-major axis and a high inclination.

Vatira Asteroids orbit entirely inside the orbit of Venus. To date, only a single such asteroid has been discovered, (594913) ’Ayló’chaxnim 2020 AV2. Shepherd et al.'s model suggests that about 5% of Vatira Asteroids with populations larger than 1 km should have been discovered to date, implying that there are about 20 such asteroids, although extrapolating from a single known asteroid gives quite a large margin of error. Again, a larger population of such asteroids could be present if their orbits tended to keep them out of the observed survey fields, due to low semi-major axes, more circular orbits, or higher inclinations.

The Dark Energy Camera Twilight Survey is the largest and most sensitive survey aimed at objects interior to the Earth's orbit to date. The survey discovered two new Atiras and one new Apollo Asteroid, but no new Vatiras. 

One of the newly discovered Atira Asteriods, 2021 PH27 has the lowest known semi-major axis and shortest orbital period of any asteroid discovered to date. This asteroid is calculated to have regular close encounters with Venus, and to be likely to pass through that planet's Hill Sphere within the next 950-1050 years, making it a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid to Venus. 2021 PH7 has an orbit which crosses those of both Venus and Mercury, with a perihelion distance of 0.13 AU. This body will thus also be more subject to the effects of General Relativity than any other known body in the Solar System, resulting to a change in its trajectory of about 53 arcseconds each century.

The newly discovered Apollo Asteroid, 2022 AP7, is the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid discovered since 2014, with an estimated diameter of 1.5 km.

Modelling of the Atira Asteroid population suggests that there are probably several more such asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter to be discovered, probably with low semi-major axes and high inclinations, making them hard to detect for most surveys. 

Although the Dark Energy Camera Twilight Survey was intended to be more sensitive to smaller objects than previous studies, two of the three bodies it discovered were in excess of 1 km in diameter. This may indicate that smaller asteroids are less stable in the region covered by the survey. This is probably due to the thermal and gravitational effects of the Sun, which could cause smaller bodies to break up more readily. However, this cannot be stated with any confidence at the current time due to the low sample size of detected Atira Asteroids.

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Monday, 28 June 2021

Asteroid (441987) 2010 NY65 passes the Earth.

Asteroid (441987) 2010 NY65 passed by the Earth at a distance of 5 972 000 km (15.6 times the average distance between the Earth and the Moon, or 3.99% of the average distance between the Earth and the Sun), slightly before 5.10 am GMT on Friday 25 June 2021. There was no danger of the asteroid hitting us, though had it done so it would have presented a considerable threat. (441987) 2010 NY65 has an estimated equivalent diameter of 94-300 m (i.e. a spherical body with the same mass would be 99-310 m in diameter), and an towards the upper end of this range would pass through the atmosphere and directly impact the ground with a force of about 1110 megatons (about 65 300 times the explosive energy of the Hiroshima bomb), causing devastation over a wide area and creating a crater about 4.6 km across, and resulting in global climatic problems that could last for decades or even centuries.

Asteroid (441987) 2010 NY65 observed from London, England in June 2017. Northolt Branch Observatories/Facebook.

(441987) 2010 NY65 was discovered on 14 July 2010 by the NEOWISE system on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer satellite. The designation 2010 NY65 implies that it was the 1649th asteroid (asteroid Y65; in numbering asteroids the letters A-Z, excluding I, are assigned numbers from 1 to 25, with a number added to the end each time the alphabet is ended, so that A = 1, A1 = 26, A2 = 51, etc., which means that Y65 = (25 x 65) + 24 = 1649) discovered in the first half of July 2010 (period 2010 N; the year being split into 24 half-months represented by the letters A-Y, with I being excluded), while the designation 441987 implies that it was 441 987th asteroid ever discovered (asteroids are not given this longer designation immediately to avoid naming double or false sightings).
 
 
The relative positions of (441987) 2010 NY65 and the Earth on 25 June 2021. JPL Small Body Database.
 
(441987) 2010 NY65 has a 367 day (1 year) orbital period, with an elliptical orbit tilted at an angle of 11.6° to the plain of the Solar System which takes in to 0.63 AU from the Sun (63% of the distance at which the Earth orbits the Sun and inside the orbit of the planet Venus) and out to 1.37 AU (37% further away from the Sun than the Earth). This means that close encounters between the asteroid and Earth are fairly common, with the last thought to have happened in June 2020 and the next predicted in June 2022. (441987) 2010 NY65 also has frequent close encounters with the planet Venus, with the last thought to have occurred in May 2020 and the next predicted for May 2052. Although it does cross the Earth's orbit and is briefly further from the Sun on each cycle, (441987) 2010 NY65 spends most of its time closer to the Sun than we are, and is therefore classified as an Aten Group Asteroid. As an asteroid possibly larger than 150 m in diameter that occasionally comes within 0.05 AU of the Earth, (441987) 2010 NY65 is also classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.
 
 
The orbit and current position of (441987) 2010 NY65. Minor Planet Centre.

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